Inspired by the market below.
The way this will work is as follows. You, the bettors, suggest books similar to Red Mars (and Green and Blue Mars) by Kim Stanley Robinson. This is a hard science fiction series about the colonisation of Mars by humans. It is arguably my favourite book. I like its realistic setting, its focus on story over character and its large scope.
I will purchase and read the top three suggestions that I have not previously read. Each book that I read and like will receive 20% of the market resolution. The remaining (100-20n)% will be divided between all recommendations that I have already read and liked, except in the case that each of those would receive more than 10%, in which case they will be capped at 10% and the remainder will be evenly distributed back to the new recommendations that I liked.
Basically, you win if you suggest or bet on books I've read and liked, and you win more if you suggest or bet on books I haven't read yet but subsequently do and like.
For reference, I rank books thusly:
* really bad
** poor
*** quite good
**** very good
***** excellent
Anything I would give three stars to qualifies as 'liking' it.
Final rules: no more books by Kim Stanley Robinson (too obvious), and
@NathanpmYoung should not bet as he knows my reading history too well.
https://manifold.markets/Thisistherealmessage/which-book-similar-to-the-three-bod
1,000
1.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ88 | |
| 2 | Ṁ17 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 |
It occured to me that this might read as rude, so I'll add:
Since @Duncn recommended two other books I did enjoy, on average they have good recommendations and therefore people should read this even though I wouldn't recommend it
Overall I'm very happy with how this market turned out, but I'm not satisfied exactly. The actual market dynamics didn't work to promote participation and it lacked a mechanism for me to input information that submitted answers were missing the mark.
The obvious answer is for me to run the next one as a bounty, but I am attached to the idea of letting people bid on what they think are good suggestions.
I'll give some thought to the second iteration of this concept, but if people have any suggestions feel free to post them below ~
@JoshuaWilkes Have you seen https://manifold.markets/ChrisPrichard/which-book-will-be-the-first-i-like?r=TWF0dENXaWxzb24 ?
Perhaps still not ideal, but it’s been quite participate-y.
Okay, updates:
Here are the books I've read:
A Fire upon the Deep
Project Hail Mary
The Martian
Seveneves
Blue Mars
Dune
Anathem
Of these, all but Blue Mars* will receive a market share because they are books that I liked. Since there are only six on the list, and the maximum each can receive is 10%, this is what they will each get.
*Blue Mars was explicitly excluded in the question description.
I have just purchased A Deepness in the Sky and Jumper. I actually already own The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. I will read these soon, and update after I have read all three.
Lastly, I want to award a bounty to whoever* recommended Ra. Of all the books suggested, this is the one I was most drawn to, so I will also purchase and read that.
*I can't see who did, so speak up and be honest!
@JoshuaWilkes Fun Manifold UI fact: anywhere you see a user profile icon, you can click it to go to the profile page. You can also long press / hover on a submitted market option to see creation time.
@JoshuaWilkes Hope you enjoy Deepness and Moon! Will look into Jumper and Ra myself based on this market, thanks for making it! (Also some more weight for me to pull my yet-unread copy of Seveneves off the bookshelf. I love Stephenson but a Stephenson book is just. So… big, yunno? And yet, almost always worth it.)
@MattCWilson It's weird, in the trades section the identity is completely blank but up in the question itself I can see it's @Duncn - who will eventually receive his bounty
@MattCWilson Seveneves is really really good. I've also read Anathem and DODO and it's easily the best of the three
@JoshuaWilkes Oh man, then why the frig have I not gone for it yet??? Thanks, that’s high praise. Cryptonomicon is my fave, Anathem is #2. Didn’t read DODO… guess that’s going on my list 😅
@JoshuaWilkes update: I finished The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. It's a bit of a slow burner but ultimately it's very good, and certainly it's similar to Red Mars in many respects.
It will be getting at least 20% of the resolution.
Also it made me want to read Stranger in a Strange Land
Chapeau to @mistersplice !
@YairNeumann Personally disagree, but I can see the argument. Would you agree Stranger is still worth a try?
@JoshuaWilkes I just realised that my comment of two weeks ago is incorrect. The six I already read may receive 10% each, but they may also receive 40/6%, which given the books that won the other part seems more likely.
@JoshuaWilkes second update:
I finished Jumper. It's a perfectly good YA novel, I enjoyed it and it will get its payout.
However
It's not really anything like Red Mars. Other than the fact its sci-fi (sort-of), there's really nothing to link the two books. I'm not particularly concerned that it was nominated, but I think it's a failure of the market concept that it made it to the top three (although I suppose there were several above it I had already read).
@JoshuaWilkes appreciation to @Duncn nonetheless for what was an enjoyable read and some food for thought for the next iteration of this market
Great news!
I absolutely LOVED A Deepness in the Sky! One of the better books I've read, and only slightly spoiled by being a bit too long for its plot. Wonderful stuff, and especially gratifying because I would never have read it by myself, not having enjoyed A Fire upon the Deep too much.
@JoshuaWilkes I have seemingly again lost the ability to see who nominated Deepness but I think it was @Duncn ? Thanks in any case, and an extra bounty has been sent for the Ra recommendation