Background

Multiple recall efforts are currently underway in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY). Civil society groups have initiated recall petitions against 31 KMT legislators, primarily due to controversial budget cuts and legislative actions perceived as undermining national security. Simultaneously, the KMT has launched recall petitions against 13 DPP legislators, with two petitions having already gathered sufficient signatures for submission to the Central Election Commission.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the total number of Legislative Yuan members who are successfully recalled through official recall elections during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025). For a recall to be considered successful:

• The number of valid votes in favor must exceed the number against

• The "yes" votes must constitute more than one-quarter of the total eligible voters in the original electoral district

• The recall must be officially certified by Taiwan's Central Election Commission

Considerations

• Recall efforts can fail at multiple stages: signature collection, validation by the Central Election Commission, or at the actual recall vote

• Historical data suggests that successful recalls are relatively rare due to the high threshold requirements

• If a legislator resigns before a recall election, this will not count as a successful recall

  Resolution Criteria

  This market will resolve based on the total number of members of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan who are successfully recalled through official recall elections during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025). A recall is considered successful if:

  • The number of valid votes in favor of the recall exceeds the number against.

  • The "yes" votes constitute more than one-quarter of the total eligible voters in the original electoral district.

  • The recall is officially certified by Taiwan's Central Election Commission (CEC).

  Official results will be verified through announcements from the CEC. (focustaiwan.tw)

  Background

  In early 2025, Taiwan experienced a surge in recall efforts targeting members of the Legislative Yuan. As of March 10, recall campaigns had been initiated against 34 of the 39 Kuomintang (KMT) district legislators. These efforts were largely driven by civil society groups in response to controversial legislative actions, including significant budget cuts and perceived threats to national security. Simultaneously, the KMT launched recall petitions against 13 Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators. The recall process in Taiwan involves multiple stages:

  1. Proposal Stage: A recall petition must be signed by more than 1% of the total number of eligible voters in the relevant district.

  2. Co-signature Stage: Upon approval, the petitioners have 60 days to collect signatures from at least 10% of eligible voters in the district.

  3. Voting Stage: If the required signatures are obtained and verified, a recall vote is scheduled.

  For a recall to succeed, the number of votes in favor must exceed those against, and the "yes" votes must constitute more than one-quarter of the total eligible voters in the district. (focustaiwan.tw)

  Considerations

  • Legislative Changes: In December 2024, amendments to the Public Officials Election and Recall Act were passed, requiring individuals initiating or signing a recall petition to provide photocopies of their identification cards. This change may impact the ease of initiating recall petitions. (taipeitimes.com)

  • Historical Context: Successful recalls of legislators in Taiwan have been relatively rare due to the stringent requirements. The current wave of recall efforts is unprecedented in scale, making outcomes uncertain.

  • Political Dynamics: The recall campaigns are occurring amidst heightened political tensions between the DPP and KMT, potentially influencing both the initiation and success rates of recall efforts.