Serious accidents would include the submarine sinking, or an incident involving multiple deaths on board.
This question will close and resolve in 2025, to allow information to make its way.
The question covers the time frame of the entirety of 2023, including before and after market creation.
It's hard to choose appropriate resolution criteria. I will resolve this YES if a reasonable person would deem it more likely than not that this happened. I will not bet on this market.
Related questions
Taiwan says the latest incident didn't happen, which convinces me. And the base rate for CN submarine accidents is... <5% per year maybe?
@Capresis I haven't been able to track down the original source, but in the other market I reported that Taiwan now says 'no comment'
@JoshuaWilkes https://manifold.markets/BTE/has-a-chinese-submarine-crashed-in?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz
@JoshuaWilkes https://www.eurasiantimes.com/pla-submarine-missing-chinas-defense-minister-underground/?amp
Since it says "If an incident takes place after question creation" does only having an accident from, say, August resolve NO?
Title implies otherwise, which is confusing either way
