I am not going to set up exact criteria for what counts as a Russian presence within Bakhmut. This question is trying to capture whether the Russian position there will collapse totally, which is a way of measuring whether a) the Ukrainian counteroffensive thrusts in that direction, and b) is successful.

On credible news reports that a significant Ukrainian offensive has started, I will start a 30 day clock, backdated to my best attempt at pinning the start time of the offensive. At the end of this clock, if Russia is still contesting Bakhmut, this will resolve NO. If there are no Russian forces in Bakhmut or attacking Bakhmut, this will resolve YES.

June 8, 5pm Kviv time is the moment Manifold decided the counteroffensive had truly started. Given a paucity of other data I'm setting the clock to have started at 5am June 8th

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-will-ukraine-launch-a-larg?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz