
Currently it's kinda a pain to create a bunch of markets that are very similar on Manifold Markets (c.f. this bunch of markets https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-the-118th-congress-pass-more-r). I had to manually duplicate the market a bunch of times, and this was not particualrly fun. It also spammed my LOYAL FOLLOWERS with a bunch of emails. This ain't great.
This market will resolve YES if the following two conditions are true on the base Manifold Website (i.e. no random Github tools or whatever):
I can within 5 minutes create all of the "All Number of Resolutions Passed Markets" once I have the text that is the same among all 5 of those markets. It is not required that it inserts the grid of markets as well, though that would be a nice feature.
Using this feature sends exactly one email notification, and exactly one website notification. Said notification will somehow contain all of these markets.
Otherwise this will resolve NO.
I will give bounties to the first person (and maybe more people) who either creates a random tool or points me in the direction of one that can accomplish condition 1.
If the resolution criteria are unclear feel free to ask questions/pose hypotheticals to figure out what I mean!


@PatMyron I was vaguely curious about the size of the tails as well, which numeric markets don't convey. Well, at least that's the post facto explanation; the real explanation is that I forgot about them until I was too far committed in making the string of binary markets.
That being said, I think that creating a bunch of binary markets about something like this could genuinely be useful for intuiting a distribution. Also, I’d imagine this would have some sort of utility for political markets and maybe sports markets as well? Like, will X person win Y state. Or will X team beat Y team. I could see someone wanting to make a bunch of markets like that all at once, and this feature seems useful for that.




@jonsimon If I’m able to create the markets in 5 minutes or fewer (which seems entirely possible), then yeah (I think that if they do allow ya to silence notifications, then I will try to recreate the markets and if I can create ‘em witching the time, then I’ll resolve YES, otherwise I’ll leave the market open)
































