Will Manifold have a convenient way to create a bunch of markets about “basically the same topic” by the end of 2023?
closes 2024

Currently it's kinda a pain to create a bunch of markets that are very similar on Manifold Markets (c.f. this bunch of markets https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-the-118th-congress-pass-more-r). I had to manually duplicate the market a bunch of times, and this was not particualrly fun. It also spammed my LOYAL FOLLOWERS with a bunch of emails. This ain't great.

This market will resolve YES if the following two conditions are true on the base Manifold Website (i.e. no random Github tools or whatever):

  1. I can within 5 minutes create all of the "All Number of Resolutions Passed Markets" once I have the text that is the same among all 5 of those markets. It is not required that it inserts the grid of markets as well, though that would be a nice feature.

  2. Using this feature sends exactly one email notification, and exactly one website notification. Said notification will somehow contain all of these markets.

Otherwise this will resolve NO.

I will give bounties to the first person (and maybe more people) who either creates a random tool or points me in the direction of one that can accomplish condition 1.

If the resolution criteria are unclear feel free to ask questions/pose hypotheticals to figure out what I mean!

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JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting NO at 60%

Always good news when a dev bets YES on a market like this :-D

PatMyron avatar
Pat Myron

Seems like this already could have been one numerical market

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting NO at 22%

@PatMyron I was vaguely curious about the size of the tails as well, which numeric markets don't convey. Well, at least that's the post facto explanation; the real explanation is that I forgot about them until I was too far committed in making the string of binary markets.

That being said, I think that creating a bunch of binary markets about something like this could genuinely be useful for intuiting a distribution. Also, I’d imagine this would have some sort of utility for political markets and maybe sports markets as well? Like, will X person win Y state. Or will X team beat Y team. I could see someone wanting to make a bunch of markets like that all at once, and this feature seems useful for that.

audrey avatar
audreybought Ṁ15 of NO

the duplicate button seems pretty convenient to me tbh

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting NO at 22%

@audrey Yeah, but it could be more convenient. Also, I think the notification thing is the bigger part of this question, because spamming inboxes or whatever with slightly differing questions is Bad™.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonbought Ṁ10 of NO

@JoshuaB would this resolve to Yes if there was a way to toggle "don't notify my followers" for a given market, unrelated to any other details about the ease of market creation?

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting NO at 37%

@jonsimon If I’m able to create the markets in 5 minutes or fewer (which seems entirely possible), then yeah (I think that if they do allow ya to silence notifications, then I will try to recreate the markets and if I can create ‘em witching the time, then I’ll resolve YES, otherwise I’ll leave the market open)

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting NO at 37%

@JoshuaB Sigh, good ol’ phone typing

* within

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 33%

@JoshuaB well seeing as you can already create a market in much less than 5 minutes with the help of copy/pasting, I take that to mean that this market is equivalent to "will Manifold provide a market-creation-notification toggle switch" which is a much lower bar

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting NO at 34%

@jonsimon To be clear, it is creating a series of four markets not just one

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