Will Manifold have a convenient way to create a bunch of markets about “basically the same topic” by the end of 2023?
64
529
1.3k
resolved Oct 10
Resolved
YES

Currently it's kinda a pain to create a bunch of markets that are very similar on Manifold Markets (c.f. this bunch of markets https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-the-118th-congress-pass-more-r). I had to manually duplicate the market a bunch of times, and this was not particualrly fun. It also spammed my LOYAL FOLLOWERS with a bunch of emails. This ain't great.

This market will resolve YES if the following two conditions are true on the base Manifold Website (i.e. no random Github tools or whatever):

  1. I can within 5 minutes create all of the "All Number of Resolutions Passed Markets" once I have the text that is the same among all 5 of those markets. It is not required that it inserts the grid of markets as well, though that would be a nice feature.

  2. Using this feature sends exactly one email notification, and exactly one website notification. Said notification will somehow contain all of these markets.

Otherwise this will resolve NO.

I will give bounties to the first person (and maybe more people) who either creates a random tool or points me in the direction of one that can accomplish condition 1.

If the resolution criteria are unclear feel free to ask questions/pose hypotheticals to figure out what I mean!

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted NO

Woohoo! Thanks @Conflux for letting me know about the new feature, and thanks to the Manifold team for implementing it! This without a doubt counts!

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

They just rolled out independent multiple choice markets!

sold Ṁ4,256 of YES

@Conflux the markets seem to have a bug. Hopefully this one still resolves YES if they cancel the feature immediately?

bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@Conflux actually they claim they’ve fixed it

sold Ṁ514 of YES

@JoshuaB what about the newly introduced dashboards? it still sends multiple notifs but it is also a way to aggregate markets

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Ooh, okay. I think in theory it could count. Here’s what would have to be true for it to count:

  1. Can create all 5 markets without sending any notifications to my (loyal!) followers

  2. Can create a dashboard with all 5 markets and send a notification to followers that said market was created

  3. Can do both of these things within 5 minutes

I’m pretty sure I’m interpreting my description correctly here, and if it seems like I might not be, someone should tell me.

Also, I’m pretty sure the “5 markets” of the description and this comment should actually be 4 markets, cause that’s how many “Number of Resolutions Passed Markets” I made. I’ll burn that bridge later though,,,

bought Ṁ222 of YES

@JoshuaB Yep! You could create those markets with the publicly listed toggle off, create a dashboard, and share that. Then toggle those back. Will take less than 2 mins after creating the markets, afaik

predicted NO

@firstuserhere It doesn't seem as if Dashboard creation currently notifies anyone, is this correct?

bought Ṁ222 of YES

@JoshuaB I don't think the dashboard creation notifies anyone

sold Ṁ292 of YES
predicted YES
bought Ṁ70 of NO

To be clear, point 2 is not currently satisfied by the publicly listed toggle since it will send no notifications rather than 1 with all the markets.

My comment from 6 months ago was incorrect. If anyone was trading on the crossed out portion of that comment, please tell me and I’ll do my best to reimburse you. Sorry y’all!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I would love this

boughtṀ1NO

@ian Well, shucks! Yada yada, impassioned arguing about how this is a feature I’d use at least 2 times, and therefore it’s useful! Etc, etc, devs I beseech thee make this happen :-D

shouldnt we ultimately converge on a small set of questions? it already feels like we have tons of spinoffs that ill never bother with.

but hey im new here so maybe ill change my mind

predicted NO

@MattPen How about something like betting on all the games of some sports team for a season? That seems like something that’d be groovy and it’d be very convenient to create the corresponding markets with this feature.

Edit: Also, welcome to Manifold! Hope ya like it here!

@JoshuaB those would be at different times, so ok👍

@JoshuaB if there was a single page/dashboard kind of option where you could have multiple markets which are not linked to each other but work as independent binary, that'd count, right? Because then one market going up doesn't mean "YES for this intersection with NO for these other markets", it's decoupled

predicted NO

@firstuserhere I'm not quiiite sure what you're asking here.

What I think you’re saying is basically having a high-level question at the top along the lines of “Will the 118th Congress pass more than X resolutions,” and then having 5 different options which are like “X = 600”; “X = 700” etc.? If so, then yeah, that would count. Naturally, if you’re asking something else, correct my understanding :-P.

(Also, it’d be a really useful market type!!)

predicted YES

@JoshuaB yep! Also, another new way of aggregating markets! manifold.markets/portfolio

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Ooh! Very groovy feature! I’m kinda scared about using it cause it’ll prolly clog up my trades page a ton

(I feel like it’d be poor form if I didn’t explicitly say this doesn’t count, even though you didn’t make the claim at all that it should,, so uh, guys, this doesn’t count)

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@JoshuaB how do you like the new multiple choice binary markets?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Feanor I really like the new multiple choice markets. I don’t think that they should count for the purposes of this market, however, since if I were to create a market with say, 5 options, the probabilities of each event happening could not be easily read. For the purposes of this market, I’d like the displayed odds to be identical to what the displayed odds are for the separate binary markets.

Thinking about it, if I were to create the series of markets today I would use a multiple choice market and bucket it as less than 600, 600 to 700, etc. but that is not what I had in mind for this market. Also, multiple choice markets don’t work as well as “create a bunch of markets about ‘basically the same topic’” for things like “which party will win the Alabama/Alaska/Arizona/etc. senate races,” so I do continue to see utility in the feature I describe.

(also, having more control over how you notify people sounds groovy too)

predicted NO

Always good news when a dev bets YES on a market like this :-D