Will Nate Silver say the words "Scottish Teens" at Manifest?
36
resolved Sep 25
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if he does and I or credible witnesses report that he did in this thread.

Resolves N/A if he does not attend.

Resolves NO if he attends but no one reports that he said the phrase.

I will not trade in this market.

Get แน€500 play money

Related questions

How many Manifest 2023 attendees will also attend Folsom St Fair?
How many people will attend Manifest 2023?
How many people at Manifest will contract COVID at or roughly around Manifest?
Was someone who worked on Fox News' America Predicts at ManiFest?
Quinn avatarQuinn Dougherty
28% chance
Will I attend Manifest?
Will a Hugo or Nebula award winning SciFi author come to Manifest 2023?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
10% chance
Whose talk at Manifest 2023 will be best-rated in our feedback survey?
If I go to Manifest, will someone film me eating a spoonful of poop? ๐Ÿ’ฉ๐Ÿฅ„๐Ÿ˜‹
Will someone from each of the 6 major continents of the world attend Manifest 2023?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
2% chance
Will at least one USD equivalent billionaire attend Manifest 2023?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
1% chance
If I attend Manifest, would I have considered it a better use of my time than my counterfactual weekend?
LinchuanZhang avatarLinchuan Zhang
81% chance
Will anyone report getting a job offer at Manifest?
Will someone with at least 2m twitter followers, who is not an official speaker, be seen at Manifest 2023?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
1% chance
Will anyone at Manifest create a modern version of trial by ordeal?
ByrneHobart avatarByrne Hobart
14% chance
What would you do for an extra hour in the Manifest ball pit?
Will I @BTE attend Manifest?
Will at least one elected national government official attend Manifest 2023?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
5% chance
Will someone with at least 1m twitter followers, who is not an official speaker, be seen at Manifest 2023?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
4% chance
Will I go to Manifest?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac King
4% chance
How many speakers & special guests will attend Manifest 2023?

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€155
2แน€113
3แน€51
4แน€36
5แน€36
Sort by:
Lorec avatar
Lorecpredicted NO

I looked and couldn't find any evidence of Nate Silver himself ever having played up the Scottish Teens meme? "Prediction markets are less reliable than expert predictions because they are populated by non-experts" seems to be an opinion he takes seriously, and he doesn't seem like the type to meme about his serious opinions.

3 replies
Lorec avatar
Lorecsold แน€26 of NO

@Lorec Never mind, it's plausibly a podcast meme, so no Googleable records.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicted NO

@Lorec Yeah, heโ€™s said it a lot on the podcast. I wish they would include a transcript on the FiveThirtyEight website, but they donโ€™t bother for whatever reason.

DanielFilan avatar
Daniel Filanpredicted YES

@Gabrielle FWIW it's pretty labor-intensive to make transcripts that are accurate enough to not be embarrassing to put on your website. (I also think for some people, it's nice to speak in a format where people who like you will listen to but people who dislike you can't search thru)

Weepinbell avatar
Weepinbell

Is there reason to believe he's going to be at Manifest? Did I miss an announcement or something?

1 reply
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought แน€10 of YES

Is PredictIt actually more popular in Scotland, or among teenagers? I'm curious where this stereotype arose, I'd have assumed that the main demographic is more like American twentysomethings.

2 replies
Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle

@Conflux I think the stereotype was more about the other betting markets, which are primarily run by British bookies. Iโ€™m not sure why itโ€™s Scottish specifically though. I think he says teens both to emphasize that a lot of the users arenโ€™t professionals and because teens stereotypically have time on their hands to โ€œwasteโ€ on things like foreign political betting markets.

Joshua avatar
Joshua

I don't know where it came from, but if Nate joins the site I vote we make that the name of the league he's placed in.