Will Nate Silver say the words "Scottish Teens" at Manifest?
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resolved Sep 25
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if he does and I or credible witnesses report that he did in this thread.

Resolves N/A if he does not attend.

Resolves NO if he attends but no one reports that he said the phrase.

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predicted NO

I looked and couldn't find any evidence of Nate Silver himself ever having played up the Scottish Teens meme? "Prediction markets are less reliable than expert predictions because they are populated by non-experts" seems to be an opinion he takes seriously, and he doesn't seem like the type to meme about his serious opinions.

@Lorec Never mind, it's plausibly a podcast meme, so no Googleable records.

predicted NO

@Lorec Yeah, he’s said it a lot on the podcast. I wish they would include a transcript on the FiveThirtyEight website, but they don’t bother for whatever reason.

predicted YES

@Gabrielle FWIW it's pretty labor-intensive to make transcripts that are accurate enough to not be embarrassing to put on your website. (I also think for some people, it's nice to speak in a format where people who like you will listen to but people who dislike you can't search thru)

Is there reason to believe he's going to be at Manifest? Did I miss an announcement or something?

Is PredictIt actually more popular in Scotland, or among teenagers? I'm curious where this stereotype arose, I'd have assumed that the main demographic is more like American twentysomethings.

@Conflux I think the stereotype was more about the other betting markets, which are primarily run by British bookies. I’m not sure why it’s Scottish specifically though. I think he says teens both to emphasize that a lot of the users aren’t professionals and because teens stereotypically have time on their hands to “waste” on things like foreign political betting markets.

I don't know where it came from, but if Nate joins the site I vote we make that the name of the league he's placed in.