Resolves YES if he does and I or credible witnesses report that he did in this thread.
Resolves N/A if he does not attend.
Resolves NO if he attends but no one reports that he said the phrase.
I will not trade in this market.
Related questions
๐ Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | แน155 | |
2 | แน113 | |
3 | แน51 | |
4 | แน36 | |
5 | แน36 |

I looked and couldn't find any evidence of Nate Silver himself ever having played up the Scottish Teens meme? "Prediction markets are less reliable than expert predictions because they are populated by non-experts" seems to be an opinion he takes seriously, and he doesn't seem like the type to meme about his serious opinions.

@Gabrielle FWIW it's pretty labor-intensive to make transcripts that are accurate enough to not be embarrassing to put on your website. (I also think for some people, it's nice to speak in a format where people who like you will listen to but people who dislike you can't search thru)

Is there reason to believe he's going to be at Manifest? Did I miss an announcement or something?

Is PredictIt actually more popular in Scotland, or among teenagers? I'm curious where this stereotype arose, I'd have assumed that the main demographic is more like American twentysomethings.
@Conflux I think the stereotype was more about the other betting markets, which are primarily run by British bookies. Iโm not sure why itโs Scottish specifically though. I think he says teens both to emphasize that a lot of the users arenโt professionals and because teens stereotypically have time on their hands to โwasteโ on things like foreign political betting markets.

I don't know where it came from, but if Nate joins the site I vote we make that the name of the league he's placed in.

















