Resolves YES if he does and I or credible witnesses report that he did in this thread.
Resolves N/A if he does not attend.
Resolves NO if he attends but no one reports that he said the phrase.
I will not trade in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ155 | |
| 2 | Ṁ113 | |
| 3 | Ṁ51 | |
| 4 | Ṁ36 | |
| 5 | Ṁ36 |
People are also trading
I looked and couldn't find any evidence of Nate Silver himself ever having played up the Scottish Teens meme? "Prediction markets are less reliable than expert predictions because they are populated by non-experts" seems to be an opinion he takes seriously, and he doesn't seem like the type to meme about his serious opinions.
@Lorec Yeah, he’s said it a lot on the podcast. I wish they would include a transcript on the FiveThirtyEight website, but they don’t bother for whatever reason.
@Gabrielle FWIW it's pretty labor-intensive to make transcripts that are accurate enough to not be embarrassing to put on your website. (I also think for some people, it's nice to speak in a format where people who like you will listen to but people who dislike you can't search thru)
@Conflux I think the stereotype was more about the other betting markets, which are primarily run by British bookies. I’m not sure why it’s Scottish specifically though. I think he says teens both to emphasize that a lot of the users aren’t professionals and because teens stereotypically have time on their hands to “waste” on things like foreign political betting markets.