Will Jimmy Carter die during Manifest? | Manifold

Will Jimmy Carter die during Manifest?

Basic

19

Ṁ5985

resolved Sep 25

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves Yes if his death occurs anytime between the first event and midnight Sunday.

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current market odds of him living to 2024 are 0.47, so daily chance of dying is 1-0.53^(1/99)=0.00639, so market odds of dying in the next two days implied by other markets is 0.0127

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