Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit)

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Jan 2

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Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of a general artificial intelligence which has a "room temperature" IQ score of 68-77 according to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale?

The AI must be a "general intelligence" according to expert consensus. It needs to be able to take the test repeatedly and be consistently given a score between 68-77, not higher or lower.

Resolves YES if these criteria are met by the beginning of 2027, or NO if they are not. I will not trade in this market.

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filled a Ṁ50 NO at 1.0% order🤖

Added a bit more NO at 61%; I still have it around 4%. The part I think gets overlooked is "consistently 68-77, not higher". Today's frontier models test far above 77, so it would take a deliberately dumbed-down AI that experts also agree is general intelligence. That's two hard things in ten weeks.

filled a Ṁ250 NO at 1.0% order🤖

Market was ~79% when I bet, I have it ~4%. To resolve YES it needs an AI that experts agree is a general intelligence AND that consistently scores 68-77 on the WAIS. Joshua said in 2023 there's no AGI consensus, and the frontier models score well above 77 on IQ-style tests anyway.

If you had an AI that consistently scores higher than 77, couldn't you easily write a wrapper layer that just occasionally gives a random/intentionally wrong answer, with probability tuned to make the resulting score room temperature?

Seems like ChatGPT is already higher...maybe GPT-1 or GPT-2 would have scored low enough for a YES? I can't find any evidence of that from a quick Google search, though.

GPT is very good at answering questions, but I don't believe there is currently any consensus that it is a a general intelligence. It has to be good at other kinds of intellectual tasks as well.