Who will Manifold run over in the Time Traveling Trolley Problem - Round 2?
Basic
33
32k
resolved Feb 11
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Alan Turing instead of Henrietta Lacks?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Genghis Kahn instead of Karl Marx?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Jim Jones instead of Ronald Reagan?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over JRR Tolkien instead of Martin Luthor?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Lee Harvey Oswald instead of Yoko Ono?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Leo Szlilard instead of Rosa Parks?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Mary the mother of Jesus instead of Mitochondiral Eve?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Sam Altman instead of Stephen Hawking?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Stanislav Petrov instead of Vasily Arkhipov?
Resolved
N/A
_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Vladimir Zelensky instead of Xi Jinping?
Resolved
NO
Alan Turing, in the middle of writing his paper “On computable numbers” in 1936
Resolved
YES
Genghis Khan in 1206, before his conquests in Asia
Resolved
YES
Henrietta Lacks, just before unknowingly contributing to a pivotal moment in medical history when her cells were taken without her consent during a biopsy at Johns Hopkins Hospital on January 29, 1951.
Resolved
NO
Jim Jones, three hours before he kills Congressman Leo Ryan and instructs his cult to drink poisoned Flavor Aid.
Resolved
NO
JRR Tolkien, telling The Hobbit to his children as a bedtime story in 1930
Resolved
NO
Karl Marx in 1847 while writing The Communist Manifesto
Resolved
YES
Lee Harvey Oswald, but it's just *after* he shot Kennedy.
Resolved
YES
Leo Szilard in 1933, as he has the idea of the nuclear chain reaction
Resolved
YES
Martin Luther right before he writes his 95 thesis
Resolved
YES
Mary, the mother of Jesus, right before her 13th birthday

A sequel to /Joshua/who-will-manifold-run-over-in-the-t

It turns out we left behind our backup flux capacitor in the timeline where we were stranded! We need to go back and get it! Unfortunately that means going through the Time Tracks again, and more people will have to get run over. If the trolley runs over someone, they suddenly die of an aneurysm and that timeline has to deal with the consequences.

If someone is run over, their name resolves Yes. If they aren't run over, their name resolves No.

Each name has been paired with another name, and presented as a poll. These polls will resolve N/A, and all mana you spend on them will be returned to you. But at market close, I will tally everyone who holds Yes and No shares in each poll and use this to determine who is run over by the Time Trolley by popular vote (# Yes holders vs # No holders).

The individual names then resolve Yes or No accordingly.

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Don't have time resolve this rn, gonna extend another day

Make your closing arguments! I'll resolve sometime tomorrow

@Joshua Do bot votes count for the polls? Some of them are close and it could change the results.

@Arky I think I counted them last time, so yeah for consistency I guess they count as a yes holder or no holder

bought Ṁ1 _Poll: Should the Ti... NO

@Joshua sorry, I can't follow you. Why should acc count?(I think it is the only bot) Why is it consistent when a random bot has a vote? Am I allowed to vote with my bots as well to manipulate?

@Lion I think most people checking the positions tabs to bet on the likely winner wouldn't be checking for whether the people holding positions are bots or not, so it's more in line with trader expectations to not differentiate when I'm resolving. If I was gonna not include certain accounts I think I should have said that up front.

Is it likely to make a difference?

@Joshua Acceleration is currently the deciding vote between Tolkien and Luther.

bought Ṁ10 _Poll: Should the Ti... NO

@PlasmaBallin ok I'm gonna vote on Lion's side to even that out haha

@Joshua Thanks. I get your point now. I am not really involved in the markets, it's probably fair. If you ran a third round, I think excluding bots and alts would be a good call. [btw: I'd love to have a third one, please.] While the discussion about Luther vs Tolkien was a pretty long one with good arguments made for Luther, I'm happy with every outcome. This might be the one people thought about the most as well. I just would like to have a fair one about what people really think and not influenced by random bots.

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over JRR Tolkien instead of Martin Luthor?

I really, really, don't want to run over Tolkien. But the religious pluralism that resulted from the Protestant Reformation was probably a necessary condition for many of the historical developments I wouldn't want to live without.

@Lion ☝️

@PlasmaBallin We have a discussion under Joshua's original post where I disagree. Feel free to join. A friend of @shankypanky agrees with your opinion as well.

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Sam Altman instead of Stephen Hawking?

In 2009 (when he would be run over) Stephen Hawking was only 9 years away from his death, while Sam Altman presumably has a lot more of his life left. Also, I think Stephen Hawking's most influential work was before 2009.

bought Ṁ1 _Poll: Should the Ti... NO

If Henrietta dies, they’ll look for another minority to remove cells from without asking or even telling her. But Turing…

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Stanislav Petrov instead of Vasily Arkhipov?

This is a tough one. Any arguments?

@Weezing I think it's more likely that Petrov's counteractual replacement would make the same choice, so I'll vote to run him over instead of vasily.

@Weezing I think without Arkhipov a nuclear attack on US ships would have been very likely, while there was still a chain of command that would decide whether or not to launch nuclear missiles in Petrov's case.

Do bot votes count?