Basic
141
47k
resolved Jul 15
Resolved
YES
Anyone from the Gidursky shortlist (Vance, Rubio, Britt)
Resolved
YES
One of the rumored short list members: Vance, Huckabee-Sanders, Scott, or Stefanik
Resolved
N/A
GOP GOVERNORS: Abbott, Bryant, Burgum, Cox, DeSantis, DeWine, Ducey, Dunleavy, Gianforte, Gordon, Hogan, Holcomb, Ivey, Justice, Kemp, Lee, Landry, Little, McMaster, Noem, Parson, Reeves, Reynolds, Sanders, Scott, Stitt, Sununu, YOUNGKIN
Resolved
N/A
One of the GOP Governors: Abbott, Burgum, Cox, DeSantis, DeWine, Dunleavy, Gianforte, Gordon, Holcomb, Justice, Kemp, Landry, Lee, Little, Lombardo, McMaster, Noem, Parson, Pillen, Reeves, Reynolds, Sanders, Scott, Stitt, Sununu, Youngkin.
Resolved
N/A
One of the Wealthy: Romney, Burgum, Issa, Carson, Braun, Donalds, Jordan, Abbott, Pompeo, Snyder, Cotton, Scott, Crenshaw, Upton, Hawley, Hern, McMaster, Kennedy, Santorum, Gingrich, Rauner, Suarez, Johnson, Burgess, Youngkin, Loeffler.
Resolved
N/A
ULTRA OUTSIDERS: Burgum, Carson, Donalds, Britt, Jordan, Rubio, Abbott, Pompeo, Cotton, Crenshaw, Taylor Greene, Hawley, Paul, Dixon, Sasse, McMaster, Santorum, Christie, Gingrich, Suarez, Johnson, Kemp, Burgess, Gianforte, or Youngkin
Resolved
N/A
A woman (Stefanik, Noem, Lake)
Resolved
NO
One of the current three favorites: Stefanik, Noem, or Scott
Resolved
NO
One of the NY dark horses: Zeldin, Giuliani, or Santos
Resolved
NO
One of his would-be rivals: Scott, Desantis, Haley, or Vivek
Resolved
NO
Noem or Huckabee-Sanders
Resolved
NO
Royal Line of Succession: Donald Trump Jr, Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, Jared Kushner
Resolved
NO
Freedom Caucus Leaders: Boebert, Biggs, Good, Meadows, Perry
Resolved
NO
One of the outsiders: Vivek, General Flynn, or Tucker Carlson
Resolved
NO
(Kari Lake, Vivek, Tucker Carlson)
Resolved
NO
PARTY CROSSOVERS: Dean Phillips, Tulsi Gabbard, or R.F. Kennedy Jr
Resolved
NO
The true believers: Kari Lake, Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene
Resolved
NO
MAGA in Congress: Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jim Jordan, or Matt Gaetz
Resolved
NO
Freedom Caucus YoungGuns: Luna, Donalds, Davidson, Green, Roy

Each option in this market describes a list of potential Trump running mates. Each is described by what they have in common, but note that the option only resolves yes if one of those specific people becomes VP, not anyone unlisted.

Options in this market resolve yes or no independently. An option resolves yes if someone in that list is announced as Trump's vice presidential running mate, and No otherwise.

If Trump does not ever announce a running mate, all options resolve N/A.

You can submit your own bundles, but please try to limit the number of candidates in them to 2-4, the fewer the better. Please name only specific people. I may N/A options if I think they are not worth the space they are taking up in the market.

Hopefully, this market will help us identify the reasons people think some candidates are more likely than others.

If you want to submit a large bundle of many candidates, there's another market for that here:

/Joshua/who-will-be-trumps-vprunning-mate-l

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going to be a funny market resolution if Burgham is the pick lol

Royal Line of Succession: Donald Trump Jr, Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, Jared Kushner
bought Ṁ5 Royal Line of Succes... YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/08/us/politics/trump-rnc-lara-michael-whatley.html

I'm telling you, he only trusts family at this point. 3% is cheap!

Stefanik, Noem, and Scott sum up to 46% on the un-bundled question but 61% here.

Since there seems to be a lot of appetite for larger groups of people than this market has, I made a separate market on it:

@PlasmaBallin Also, how come I can't add it to the Trump VP topic?

@PlasmaBallin Huh, I made it a curated topic because I was thinking of running a tournament with it, but mods should be able to add curated topics so not sure why you can't. I'll add it.

One of the GOP Governors: Abbott, Burgum, Cox, DeSantis, DeWine, Dunleavy, Gianforte, Gordon, Holcomb, Justice, Kemp, Landry, Lee, Little, Lombardo, McMaster, Noem, Parson, Pillen, Reeves, Reynolds, Sanders, Scott, Stitt, Sununu, Youngkin.

Isn't this the same option that was just N/A'ed?

One of the Wealthy: Romney, Burgum, Issa, Carson, Braun, Donalds, Jordan, Abbott, Pompeo, Snyder, Cotton, Scott, Crenshaw, Upton, Hawley, Hern, McMaster, Kennedy, Santorum, Gingrich, Rauner, Suarez, Johnson, Burgess, Youngkin, Loeffler.

@Thinker this really violates the spirit of the market

@mattyb and the very basic criteria in the description

.

One of the GOP Governors: Abbott, Burgum, Cox, DeSantis, DeWine, Dunleavy, Gianforte, Gordon, Holcomb, Justice, Kemp, Landry, Lee, Little, Lombardo, McMaster, Noem, Parson, Pillen, Reeves, Reynolds, Sanders, Scott, Stitt, Sununu, Youngkin.

@Thinker way too many

You can submit your own bundles, but please try to limit the number of candidates in them to 2-4, the fewer the better

.

@Thinker this is the market description.

lol

Well I think the large bundles are really difficult to ask people to evaluate, and this market is more informative with small bundles.

But clearly y'all want a market for large bundles, so here:


GOP GOVERNORS: Abbott, Bryant, Burgum, Cox, DeSantis, DeWine, Ducey, Dunleavy, Gianforte, Gordon, Hogan, Holcomb, Ivey, Justice, Kemp, Lee, Landry, Little, McMaster, Noem, Parson, Reeves, Reynolds, Sanders, Scott, Stitt, Sununu, YOUNGKIN

I think that's a few too many 😅

Per the description, can you try to keep it more narrow? Gonna N/A these

@Joshua

My dudes read the description

You can submit your own bundles, but please try to limit the number of candidates in them to 2-4, the fewer the better.

“Ultra outsiders”

“Rubio”

“Crenshaw”

“Burgum”

??

A woman (Stefanik, Noem, Lake)

To be clear, the lists in options are supposed to be exhaustive. So this answer only resolves yes if it's specifically Stefanik, Noem, or Lake.

@Joshua I could also N/A this and let you re-submit if that wasn't clear @FoxKHTML

@Joshua Mb you can n/a it

Y’all are betting no on trump taking the most self-aggrandizing option- Brave!

VP Giuliani is only possible if we live in the most cursed of all possible worlds.

@PlasmaBallin Agreed, but he's the only one besides Zeldin that matches the rumors about it being a former NY politician.

@Joshua Aren't you forgetting...

@PlasmaBallin Ah, of course! We're the only two who have bet on that option so far so I'll just edit him in.

@Joshua Oh no

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