Resolves to the name of the person who is the last to hold the office before it is abolished through a rule package change that would allow the house to continue operating as normal without a speaker indefinitely.
Alternatively, resolves to the name of the person who is last to hold the office before the US ceases to exist as a country, abolishes the entire house of representatives, or becomes a dictatorship.
Resolves N/A if none of this happens by the end of 2024.
Actually seeing some real mana on what started as mostly a joke market! I think this most likely N/As of course, but if it doesn't I expect the most likely result is for it to resolve to Kevin McCarthy after a major rule change is passed to let McHenry do everything the Speaker normally does, but without actually being the speaker.
As a non-expert in congressional rule minutia, I welcome suggestions for what exactly should be required for a rule change to be considered enough that it "would allow the house to continue operating as normal without a speaker indefinitely" as the market description says.
abolished through a rule package change that would allow the house to continue operating as normal without a speaker indefinitely.
To clarify, if https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-house-empower-mchenry-as-t happens, does that count? It looks to me that is probably YES because it would allow the House to operate as normal indefinitely. (My critiera in that market are specific to legislation, there's other stuff the Speaker can do, but any rules are likely to grant whatever necessary powers to the Speaker pro temp).
So, the markets think it's pretty likely to happen!
Definitely wishing I knew more about parliamentary procedure now! But I imagine that there might be many ways that that market might resolve yes without being enough to count.
The main thing I can think of is that it needs to be indefinite, and I believe I've heard a proposals to give McHenry more power for a specified amount of time before a proper speaker then needs to be chosen.
So if they only empower him for 30 days, your market resolves but this one does not.