Who are all of the people who will be Speaker of The House before election day 2024? [Unlinked Free Response]
Basic
10
Ṁ3783
resolved Nov 15
Resolved
YES
Mike Johnson
Resolved
NO
Jim Jordan
Resolved
NO
Steve Scalise
Resolved
NO
Kevin McCarthy
Resolved
NO
Hakeem Jeffries
Resolved
NO
Patrick McHenry
Resolved
NO
Donald Trump
Resolved
NO
Elise Stefanik
Resolved
NO
Tom Emmer
Resolved
NO
Kevin Hern

This is an unlinked free respone market, each option moves from 0%-100% independently of the rest and each option can resolve early as soon as it becomes true.

An option will resolve to yes if that person becomes Speaker of The House for any amount of time after this market is created and before election day 2024. On election day, all remainin options resolve no.

#118th Congress
#Speaker of the House election
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Curious to know more about this kind of market. Is there a write up somewhere?

@Fion It's basically a bunch of separate yes/no markets

@Conflux oh interesting. Simpler than I expected but I suppose I can see how it would be convenient. Can each market resolve early?

They can! So if Jim Jordan is made speaker this month his name will resolve Yes but the market will continue. If in November he loses power and Steve Scalise becomes speaker, then Steve's name will resolve Yes.

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