What should the Biden campaign have been doing at the time this market was made to increase their chances of winning?
174
9.4kṀ32k
resolved Jun 7
Resolved
NO
Stay the course, keep doing what you're doing.
Resolved
NO
Biden should pivot hard on Israel policy, strongly condemn Netanyahu and push harder for a ceasefire.
Resolved
NO
Biden should back Israel and Netanyahu more.
Resolved
YES
Biden should reschedule weed before the election.
Resolved
YES
Biden should take action at the border with big executive orders.
Resolved
NO
The campaign should put a lot more focus on big, bold economic policy like wealth taxes or universal basic income.
Resolved
YES
The campaign should put a lot more focus on big, bold general healthcare policy like lowering the Medicare age or creating generic pharmaceuticals.
Resolved
YES
The campaign should put a lot more focus on Abortion policy specifically.
Resolved
NO
The campaign should talk about Trump's legal troubles a lot more.
Resolved
YES
Biden should step aside from the nomination before the convention, regardless of what Harris does.
Resolved
NO
Biden should step aside from the nomination before the convention, but only if Harris agrees to not be the presidential nominee.
Resolved
NO
Biden should keep running at the top of the ticket, but Harris should be replaced as the VP nominee.
Resolved
YES
Biden should do a lot more media appearances.
Resolved
NO
Biden should do a lot fewer media appearances.
Resolved
NO
Biden should focus much less on helping Ukraine against Russia.
Resolved
NO
Biden should focus much more on helping Ukraine against Russia.
Resolved
YES
Take a look at conditional political markets on Manifold to get insights about what increases their chance of winning
Resolved
NO
Free Julian Assange
Resolved
YES
Biden should give up on banning assault weapons
Resolved
NO
Biden should focus on enacting ambitious climate change policies before the election, including strongest-possible emissions rules for vehicles and power plants.

Biden seems to be losing. What should his campaign be doing about this? Submit your own answers, and you'll get trader bonuses when others trade on them.

This market will resolve after the election based on my opinion of what the Biden campaign should have been doing in March onwards to make a dem win more likely. Even if a democrat does win, this market will resolve based on what I think they could have been doing now to make that win more likely.

Advice I wouldn't send back in time resolves NO, advice I would send back in time resolves YES. If it's a really tough call I may resolve an option to N/A, but more likely I would opt to resolve to NO if I'm not sure.

  • Please submit only a single piece of advice per answer, ideally one sentence.

  • Try to keep advice strongly worded, like telling Biden to do a lot more or a lot less of something instead of slightly more or slightly less. Don't submit "keep doing what you're doing", I've got one option to cover that already.

  • Be aware of trade-offs in your advice. If you tell the campaign to focus more on one thing, it means they'll focus less on other things.

  • Keep the advice unambiguous, requiring no clarification in the comments. All the information should be in the option itself.

Please try to avoid duplicating other submissions. I may N/A submissions for quality control.

While this does resolve to my opinion, I will probably take a very outside view approach to resolution. If respectable political analysts like Nate Cohn and David Shor all say that "Biden should have done X" then I will probably resolve the option "Do X" to YES. If you want a model of my own biases nonetheless, imagine that I am Barack Obama.

Note that any advice to the Biden campaign would also be counted as advice to anyone else who hypothetically replaced Biden as the nominee.

I'm setting the resolution date for December, but may postpone if I still want to wait for more thorough postmortems, like this one.

These rules should be considered to be in Draft Form until this disclaimer is removed. I may update the exact resolution rules if anyone has suggestions for improvements within the spirit of the market.

I will not trade on this market.

See also:

/Joshua/what-should-the-trump-campaign-be-d

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ626
2Ṁ355
3Ṁ253
4Ṁ243
5Ṁ239
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy