Resolution Poll: Was "[Fundamental disagreement about OpenAI's safety...]" a significant factor in Sam Altman's firing?

resolved Dec 21

Yes

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Full answer:

Fundamental disagreement about OpenAI's safety approach

This is one in a series of polls which resolve a variant of the main Sam Altman Firing Market:

I leave it up to the voters to define what they consider a significant factor. Each option will resolve independently to yes/no depending on if yes or no gets more votes in these polls.

I'm not sure if a poll is the best way to resolve markets around a mysterious event like this, but I think it's good for us to try out a lot of different formats so that we will better know what works for next time there is a mysterious event in the news.

I encourage you to write out your reasoning for your votes in the comments here or in the linked market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I’m curious as to why this is so overwhelmingly no? It seems this is pretty indisputably true in an INDIRECT sense and very possibly could be true in a direct sense as well.

@benshindel I was split on whether to vote yes or no, but I didn’t expect the margin to be so large

@benshindel I wasn't following this market, but with the number of people answering the poll, I'd be surprised if this deviated much from the trading distribution. It seems like each trader is incentivized to just vote for the position they hold.

@Jacy That's certainly a flaw with poll resolutions in general, though I think it helps that I have the market this resolves closed so people can't trade at the same time as they're voting.

I do wish there was an option to create a poll where you can't vote if you have a position in the market the poll resolves.

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