You’re missing a bucket of 31-40%

@EliLifland ah... that does seem to be a major omission yeah. I don't think there is any way for me to edit this now. Would you have chosen that bucket?

@Joshua Didn’t think about it that long but I’m currently at ~30% so on border

@EliLifland Oh this is assuming uploading counts. If not maybe 10-15%?

26 votes now, fully half of them are for <1%. But the market is at 14%! A proposal for an alternative way to do long-term markets:

My main fear for this concept is that it could be easy to take too far. Most markets are definitely more accurate when people can spend as much as they want.

But these long-term markets really do seem like a problem to me, because most people will look at them as the same kind of forecast as all the other markets on manifold when really there's a complex system of incentives that arise from Leagues, the Loan System, and the chances that Manifold ceases to exist before those markets can ever pay out.

I think it's clear that if we had a capped version of markets like this Nathan one, they would settle on a much lower probability than the current market. I wonder how many other long-term markets that might be true for?

@Joshua With a spending cap the traders of the cheaper side can buy many more shares than the expensive side. Looking at the poll results, I would guess that the Nathan to 1000 market with spending cap would settle at a similar price range as the current uncapped market.
Maybe what we should experiment with instead is a share limit?

@Simon74fe Yeah I'm including a share cap as part of the general idea, I'm still not sure which is better. I'd be interested to see both!

I'm curious to hear from the people that voted <1% which of the steps in the breakdown they think are the most unlikely ones

@Simon74fe I expect a lot of people believe that either superintelligence that can cure aging won't happen, or that if it does happen it's certain to kill us all.

Those people think it's <1% but don't want to bet on the market because they it's only with doing if everyone one who shares that believe also bets on market so that they get paper gains.

@Simon74fe to be honest? all of them lmao

@Simon74fe 1 and 4 are the ones that I find most unlikely. I think biological aging is a hard problem, even for a hypothetical AGI. And I know society has a ton of inequality, and that having a full planet of immortal beings who can reproduce is a problem that is easily solved by restricting access to what would surely be a very expensive process.

@Simon74fe Not at <1%, but 2%.

Anyway, I think 1 and 2 are less likely.
I think AGI is at ~1% to happen in this time frame, and if it happen, it will kill us all at ~95%.

My 2% is only there because maybe we find some other way.