Buy Yes when someone is right, buy No when someone is wrong.
Stonks trade on sentiment and never resolve, unless an interesting way to make stonks resolve is invented (unlikely).
Related questions
@Joshua @Ophiuchus the number of major world events that I’ve first learned of from Manifold is staggering.
I learned about the volcano before google was returning results on it lol. No idea where Domer caught that tidbit.
@CalebW Note that it's set to "creator only" for additions, rather than being free response. I wasn't planning on immediately adding any other accounts, though I'm open to suggestions.
@Joshua @gwern and @repligate could be competitive with the current bunch I think
@Joshua Doesn't the market become mostly about how many accounts you'll add in the future?
@StevenK A reasonable concern, but I don't want to make this a market that has all of TPOT in it so probably not many more additions. I considered Eigen but I don't think he's especially an "AI account", the spirit of the market is Roon/Jimmy/Flowers who regularly have insider info. So I only want to add more accounts like that.
Does Roon have an emoji? 👦 for Carlos maybe? Or 😏?