
There have been many markets on who would win the first GOP primary debate held on Wednesday, and these three in particular have ended up with some controversy over their resolutions.
/Gabrielle/short-fuse-who-will-win-the-august
/AlexKirigiya/who-will-win-the-milwaukee-gop-deba
/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-august
The first two both made the controversial decision to declare Ron DeSantis the winner because of a FiveThirtyEight article that contained a poll in which the plurality of Republican primary voters said he had the best performance. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republican-debate-august-poll/
The trouble is, the article doesn't actually state who the winner was, and it also shows that Nikki Haley gained the most ground in terms of support and favorability from the debate, while Ron DeSantis didn't gain that much. For the first market, this is an issue because the description and answer choices seemed to imply that the winner would be determined based on which candidate gained the most ground. However, it only said this because that was how 538 said they would be assessing the winner, and the creator discussed with other Trustworthy.ish users and determined that the 538 article said DeSantis was the winner, despite this differing from the criteria that 538 was expected to use.
The second market did not have any clear resolution criteria, other than a vague statement by the creator buried in a comment that it would resolve based on polling data. However, given the lack of clear criteria, it's hard to argue that the resolution was wrong because it's not clear what the correct resolution would be to begin with.
The third market resolved on the basis of CNN articles, which mostly agreed that Nikki Haley had won the debate and strongly criticized Ramaswamy's performance. To be clear, I think this one is unambiguously correct because the market's description explicitly stated that it would be resolving according to whatever the most prominent CNN articles about it say, but some people complained that CNN isn't a good source to judge the winner of a Republican debate.
Will the resolution to any of these three markets change before this market closes? Re-resolving to a different option/combination of options, resolving N/A, or unresolving one of these markets would all count for a YES resolution here.
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