FiveThirtyEight, along with Ipsos and The Washington Post, is running a poll of likely Republican primary voters before and after the debate. Based on this polling, they are going to assess who won. Who will they say "won" the debate?

Criteria they will consider include the favorability and unfavorability ratings of each candidate, and the percentage of voters that are considering that candidate. Notably, they are assessing this based on each candidate's starting point.

They included in their polling three candidates who will not be at the debate, Donald Trump, Francis Suarez, and Will Hurd, so I'm including them in the possible outcomes.

If they say that no-one won the debate, or they do not state a winner, resolves N/A, but if they state multiple winners I will resolve to that set of winners. I reserve the right to resolve N/A in any case, though I do not intend to and will not have shares in the market.