Who will win the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate according to FiveThirtyEight polling?
79
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resolved Aug 25
100%10%
Ron DeSantis
7%
Mike Pence
2%
Tim Scott
16%
Nikki Haley
36%
Vivek Ramaswamy
11%
Chris Christie
0.5%
Asa Hutchinson
1.1%
Doug Burgum
15%
Donald Trump (not at debate)
1.2%
Francis Suarez (not at debate)
0.8%
Will Hurd (not at debate)

FiveThirtyEight, along with Ipsos and The Washington Post, is running a poll of likely Republican primary voters before and after the debate. Based on this polling, they are going to assess who won. Who will they say "won" the debate?

Criteria they will consider include the favorability and unfavorability ratings of each candidate, and the percentage of voters that are considering that candidate. Notably, they are assessing this based on each candidate's starting point.

They included in their polling three candidates who will not be at the debate, Donald Trump, Francis Suarez, and Will Hurd, so I'm including them in the possible outcomes.

If they say that no-one won the debate, or they do not state a winner, resolves N/A, but if they state multiple winners I will resolve to that set of winners. I reserve the right to resolve N/A in any case, though I do not intend to and will not have shares in the market.

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