Currently, options in a free response question will split off from "Other" at an equal probability (or approximately equal) to the "Other" option itself, while also increasing the overall probability of "Other" + new option when you add them. For example, the first answer added always starts out at 50%, and if you add a second option before trading on it, then the probability of "Other" + second option will be about 2/3, increasing from the 50% that "Other" was at before you added it. This leads to a problem where users are not incentivized to add new options to a free response market, especially early on. The old free response markets were very flawed, but the one benefit they had was that new options started out at a small probability, so users were encouraged to submit options that they actually thought might pay out. Now, in most free response markets, it is a terrible idea to submit an option in order to bet YES on it (esecially early on), since there is likely no option that's more than half as likely as all "Other" possibilities combined to pay out. Of course, users could submit options in order to bet NO on them, but that creates a perverse incentive where users are incentivized to submit options that they think are extremely unlikely to be chosen (or even just nonsensical options), rather than options that they actually think are plausible. Users might also submit options with no intention of betting on them, simply because they think they're plausible, but this costs Ṁ25 to do, and the user isn't compensated for it in any way, so there is an incentive against this.
One way to work against this would be to give users who submit options unique trader bonuses for everyone who trades on their option. I believe this was done when the type was first introduced, but now the bonuses go only to the creator of the market. This seems like a good solution, since the main purpose of unique trader bonuses is to incentivize creation of markets, despite the liquidity cost, and the same incentives apply to adding a new option on a multiple choice market.
Note that this would not require unique trader bonuses to be given solely to the user who submits the option to resolve YES. It would also resolve YES if the user who submits the option and the market creator both get a UTB when someone bets on it.
There is a Discord thread about this and other ways to potentially improve incentives for free response markets here: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1142225031422820412
For other possibilities about ways to improve incentives, see:
/JosephNoonan/will-options-in-free-response-quest
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ195 | |
| 2 | Ṁ74 | |
| 3 | Ṁ71 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
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I was able to give a bonus to @Joshua for an answer added to someone else's market. I think it can resolve yes.
https://manifold.markets/ian/given-that-i-run-the-karaoke-compet
@Joshua I just added an option in this question to test whether I get a UTB for it: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-have-the-the-most-mana-ear-c86c5da74166
If anyone trades on the option I added, I'll know for sure.
I am updating to a high probability because there is ample evidence that this is the *intention* of the current system and it is only a *bug* that it is not working as intended at the current time.
Some evidence from GitHub:
https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/commit/9e06055e19bdb76cffd7f99e694bd896c33d2ad1
And from Discord:
So hopefully this "bug" can be "solved" within the next 56 days.
@Eliza interesting! I honestly thought it was how it worked and was surprised to find out otherwise yesterday
@Eliza I knew they were planning to implement this from James's post on Discord, but I didn't know that it was only a bug that it didn't do it already.
@JosephNoonan it's too bad it isn't working like that. free response would be much better with it. hell, give the trader bonuses to both the answerer and the question creator 😇
@Stralor Yeah, I was wondering if it would give them to just the answerer, or to them and the market creator.
@JosephNoonan I think the answerer should get a larger bonus than the market creator, maybe 3/1 or 3/2
@JoshuaWilkes The market creator already has the advantage of getting the trader bonus for Other and also has the ability to add as many answers as desired upon creation. I don't think they need much else from someone else submitting an answer
@JoshuaWilkes I like that.
@Eliza the problem is multiple choice and free response questions get so much lower engagement and cost more to make, so it's worth incentivizing whoever adds questions and the creator for managing the whole thing
fixed