Which "controversial" market type is the most liked?

Basic

Ṁ274

resolved Oct 10

ALL

100%10%

Personal

Self-resolving

13%

Whalebait

1.9%

Subjective

34%

Meme/joke

Death

1.9%

AI wiping out humanity

Parodies of AI wiping out humanity

Rationalussy

Poll

1.8%

Stock

1.9%

Far future

1.9%

Long-odds

1.8%

Daily

"Completely legal Ponzi schemes"

On my Manifold survey, I asked a whether users liked or disliked 15 different market types, and I made a market about which one would be the most disliked: /JosephNoonan/what-type-of-market-is-the-most-con

That one asks which type has the most net dislikes, but which type has the most net likes? As a clue, I can say that it has the most net likes by an overwhelming margin.

I already know the answer, so I won't bet. This market will resolve once I release the results of Section 3 of the survey.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Manifold

#Manifold Drama

#Plasma's Manifold survey

#Manifold Surveys

#Short fuse

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Someone could write a script to count how many likes markets have and see which category comes up with the most likes as an extension to this market.

called it!

https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-2-manifold-on-manifold

Survey Results Pt. 2: Manifold on Manifold

In my last post, I went over the results to the first two sections of my Manifold survey. This post will cover Section 3, which was about people’s opinions on Manifold itself. Who should be Trustworthy.ish? The first question on this section was, “Which of these Manifold users do you think should be Trustworthy.ish? (Currently, none of them are yet).” That actually turned out to be not quite true by the end of the survey, though, because Pat Scott, me, and jskf all became Trustworthy.ish shortly before the survey concluded.

The markets now simultaneously give whalebait the highest probability of being the most liked and the most disliked. It's technically possible to have a probability distribution that allows this if the variance of people's expectations is highest for whalebait, but I don't see any reason why this would be the case.

@JosephNoonan It makes perfect sense. The people that win love whalebaits; the people that lose quit the site or ask for them to be banned.

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