When all is said and done, who will profit the most in my Manifold survey group?
closes Oct 8
@Joseph Noonan (Plasma Ballin')
@Stralor (Pat Scott)

Who will be highest on the profit leaderboard of the Plasma's Manifold Survey group once I've resolved all the markets I made about the results of the survey? Note that this leaderboard does include profits from markets that aren't directly about the survey results (like this one) or that aren't technically about my survey at all but are still in the group nonetheless. I might remove some markets that other users put in the group, but I'll probably be pretty lax in this policing if I do it. The profits from those markets, therefore, will contribute to users' place on the leaderboard, and will be counted towards this market. However, this market is based on who will be at the top of the leaderboard once I've resolved all of my markets about the survey (plus a small delay to let the leaderboard update), so it won't be affected if someone else puts a market in the group that takes longer to resolve.

Also, obviously, this market itself doesn't need to resolve before I determine who's at the top of the leaderboard. It's only about who will be at the top once all the other markets are resolved.

Here is the leaderboard: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=plasmas-manifold-survey

You can take my Manifold survey here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

evergreenemily avatar

Will you be betting on markets just before resolving them? e.g. if you know a market will resolve YES, will you put a lot of mana on YES and then resolve it afterwards?

1 reply
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@evergreenemily My current plan is to either to have the markets close at the same time the poll is released, or to have them close at the same time I stop accepting responses. Either way, I won't be able to bet before resolving. Also, my plan is to either not look at the results before the markets close, or not bet based on them.

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

I screwed up my own username when writing the option by adding a space to it