What will be the closest state in the 2024 election?
7
60
Nov 16
16%
Georgia
13%
Arizona
12%
Wisconsin
7%
Pennsylvania
5%
Michigan
11%
North Carolina
13%
Nevada
3%
Florida
3%
Texas
3%
Minnesota
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Ohio
3%
Iowa
4%
Maine
3%
Any other state

Which state will have the smallest margin of victory, defined as the difference in percentage of votes between the first and second place candidate?

This is only about the states, so Congressional districts with their own electoral votes don't count, even if they are closer than any state.

I included all states where the margin was <10% in 2020 as options. If none of those states are the closest in 2024, this will resolve to "any other state".

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Better version of this, using the new multiple choice market type:

bought Ṁ1 of North Carolina

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