How many of my "Manifold's favorite" markets will correctly predict the winner?
Mini
6
243
resolved Oct 13
100%29%
7 - 10
·
10mo
5%
None
·
10mo
16%
1 - 3
·
10mo
30%
4 - 6
·
10mo
16%
11 - 13
·
10mo
4%
All 14
·
10mo

I've created 14 markets asking, "What is Manifold's favorite X?" that resolve based on a survey where participants can rank each work as "Excellent", "Good", "Okay", "Bad", or "Haven't seen/read/played/heard". From these ratings, I will calculate a score for each work equal to 2*(no. of "Excellent" rankings) + (no. of "Good" rankings) - (no. of "Bad" rankings), and the winner is the work with the highest score.

How many of the markets will have the winner at the highest probability out of any option (except possibly the Other option) when they close? If one of the Manifold's favorite markets ends in a tie, then the market has to have all of the tied winners ahead of any of the other options (except possibly Other) to count as having predicted the winner.

The Manifold's favorites markets are:

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-movie

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-book

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-tv-show

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-print-co

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-webcomic

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-song

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-video-ga

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-board-ga

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-roleplay

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-short-st

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-poem

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-podcast

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-youtube

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-play

If I add any others, they won't count for this market.

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

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https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-3-manifolds-favorites

movie ✔

book ❌

tv show ✔

print comic ✔

webcomic ✔

song ❌

video game ❌

board game ✔

RPG ✔

short story ✔

poem ✔

podcast ❌

YouTube channel ❌

play ❌

So that's eight correct predictions out of fourteen, a pretty good showing for markets with so many options.

(Whoops, wrong market)

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

Currently, the only option that the markets are >50% confident in is Favorite webcomic: XKCD, which suggests that the expected number here is low.

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