MANIFOLD
Will the US Mint issue a gold coin with Trump’s likeness by 4th July, 2026?
0
Ṁ100
Jul 3
76%
chance

Resolves YES if ALL of the following are true:

  • A coin features Donald Trump’s likeness (e.g. portrait or clearly recognisable depiction)

  • The coin is issued by the U.S. Mint

  • The coin is legal tender

  • The coin is made available for public purchase, order, or distribution (i.e. actually issued, not just announced)

  • The issuance occurs on or before July 4, 2026 (11:59 PM ET)

  • Commemorative coins count (general circulation is not required)

Resolves NO if ANY of the following are true:

  • No qualifying coin is issued by the deadline

  • A coin is announced but not made available for purchase/order/distribution

  • The item is not legal tender (e.g. medals, collectibles, private mint products)

  • The coin is issued by an entity other than the U.S. Mint

  • The depiction does not clearly represent Donald Trump

Resolution Source

  • Primary: Official U.S. Mint information

  • Secondary: Consensus of credible reporting

Market context
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