MANIFOLD
Will the DHS shutdown last at least 70 days?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ11
Apr 24
72%
chance

  • Resolves YES if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least 70 days (inclusive of both the start and end dates).

  • Otherwise resolves NO.

What counts:

  • The shutdown duration is measured from February 14, 2026 through the date the shutdown ends, inclusive

  • The shutdown is considered ended on the date a funding bill to reopen DHS is signed into law (by the President or otherwise enacted)

Clarification (70-day threshold):

  • Day 1 = February 14, 2026

  • Day 70 = April 24, 2026

  • This market resolves YES if the shutdown is still ongoing on April 24, 2026, and ends on April 24, 2026 or later

Does NOT count:

  • Announcements, agreements, or plans to reopen that are not yet enacted into law

Resolution:

  • Based on official U.S. government sources and consensus of credible reporting

Market context
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