https://manifold.markets/roma/resolves-to-the-current-probability

Resolves to the current probability after it stabilises

50% chance. Resolves to market prob if the price has been consistently trading within a 6%-wide band for one week. Fine print: One week: a continuous period of 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 seconds. Resolves to the average during that period: min + (max - min) / 2. If there was a stability period, but it was broken and I've missed it, will still resolve based on that period. If this doesn't stabilise before close, resolves to N/A.

Made a version of the market without the detail Jonathan added
https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-gravity-still-exist-on-jan-1-2-baa65d70319b

Will gravity still exist on Jan 1 2025?

50% chance. resolves prob to market when the price has been stable +/- 3% for 1 week. Created as a proof of concept that these types of markets have equilibria close to the true odds and far from 50%.

People have complained that the original description left out important details about what happens if stability is never achieved, so I'm going to N/A this and re-create it with a more complete description.

@JonathanRay the new market is here:
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-gravity-still-exist-on-jan-1-2-5ada915bb179

Will gravity still exist on Jan 1 2025?

90% chance. Resolves early to market prob if the price has been consistently trading within a 6%-wide band for one week. If it does not resolve early, it resolves according to the question in the title.

WARNING WARNING WARNING:

@JonathanRay just scammed all the no bettors by randomly introducing breaking changes to the resolution criteria AFTER people have already invested considerable amounts. Consider reporting this market.

This scam artist still hasn't updated the description

I think that this proof of concept actually shows why the mechanism is still flawed. If this were actually resolving based on whether gravity exists in 2025, it would be much higher, but it's hard to keep the quiescent market price at an extreme probability, so that will always push it lower.

Poll:

I believe that establishing the reliability of whalebait is in the public interest and have added a 100 mana subsidy accordingly.

@Joshua You need to add this to the 50k subsidy bill xD

"these types of markets have equilibria close to the true odds and far from 50%."

Depends what you mean by "close" and depends what you mean by "odds". The true percentage for this market is 100% (to the level of precision I'm prepared to round to). Unfortunately in terms of odds, that's undefined.

If this market resolves below 99%, I think that's much closer to 50/50 than it is to the true odds.

One way to manipulate this for a whale, is to put huge limit orders above and below some 6% window

what happens if the price isn't stable until 2025

@jacksonpolack

@jacksonpolack I don't think it matters. Historical matters always have uncertainty. People could be misremembering on January 2.

If stability is not achieved before 2025 I will resolve on Jan 1 2025 using my best judgment as to whether gravity still exists.

That does change things a bit!

@JonathanRay I recommend not betting in the market if you're also planning on being the judge.

@JonathanRay wtf? That literally changes the resolution criteria completely. Please take that back, otherwise you've literally just scammed everyone who just bet.

We should appoint a third-party judge. Probably one randomly. How about the person who posted the comment above this one?

@JonathanRay Could you managram me my 50 cents back, please? Thanks in advance.

@JonathanRay

Is this also how the AI Doom market will resolve if there is no consensus by december 31st?

@JonathanRay Should resolve to N/A in that case imo, if you want to test how this plays out normally

@JonathanRay Hey, please managram me my invesment cost back to me.

@Joshua If my AI doom market does not achieve stability, it will resolve the same as the other 2100 AI doom market.

@levifinkelstein actually having observed the answer to the question in the title would of course be sufficient for resolution of any market. The description just adds the potential for early resolution.

@JonathanRay alright, so now one of two things will happen.

1. This market gets N/A'd or you return my mana.

2. What you did is established as OK and I do it on repeat to farm mana.

@levifinkelstein
1. Don't forget my mana too
2. Can you farm an extra 50 for me?

@JonathanRay I think resolving based on observations on 1st January 2025 is unreasonable and completely undermines the experiment. It's not really a self-resolving market anymore if it resolves depending on actual world events.

(I also think resolving based on your own judgement is just as unreasonable.)

@JonathanRay That's the default, but if you specify alternate resolution criteria in the description, people are going to take them as overruling the defaults.