resolution source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

Resolves YES when bitcoin hits $1 million after market creation.

Resolves NO when bitcoin hits $100 after market creation.

There is no adjustment for inflation.

If USD is replaced by a successor currency, this market will use the successor currency and the last available exchange rate from USD to the successor currency.

If bitcoin is replaced by a successor currency, this market will use the successor currency and the last available exchange rate from BTC to the successor currency.

If USD ceases to exist without a successor, resolves YES

If bitcoin ceases to exist without a successor, resolves NO

If AI kills us all and both cease to exist at the same time, it resolves N/A.

If this market expires without any of the resolution criteria being met, it resolves N/A.

I just noticed that this market can't be invested in seriously. The guy who made it has placed limit orders that would require this to be one of the largest markets on the platform to go below 69% and even larger to go beyond 30%. There is a ~70k barrier at 69% and a 100k barrier at 30%. This seems like an ad for bitcoin.

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-bitcoin-ever-go-below-10000-ag

This one could be better for investing. Way to low and it could happen anytime.

An unbiased log-returns walk currently gives log(27k/100)/log(1m/100) = 0.61

If we assume that the long term growth rate is equal to 2% for inflation, as mentioned below, it would take something like 183 years for the BTC/USD to hit 1m in expectation.

Meanwhile bitcoin volatility on a year-over-year basis has frequently been half an order of magnitude, so the timescale to hit one of these by volatility alone is more like 25 years.

@BoltonBailey lg(27000/100)=8 and lg(1M/27000)=5.2 so if you model it as a fair coin flip doubling or halving every year, getting to the lower bound in 25 years would have a probability of 5% and getting to the upper bound in 25 years would have a probability of 20%

But I don't think the volatility is a random walk. It's mean-reverting around a mean that is based on macroeconomic fundamentals, and this mean should grow at least as fast as nominal world gdp, faster if bitcoin gains market share.

@JonathanRay Yes, I agree that it's probably not a random walk, and my above analysis is not actually one you would want to use to assess the probability if it were guaranteed that the US government and bitcoin blockchain were guaranteed to keep chugging along into infinity, so it's a bit misleading.

A better argument for NO is more like this: The volatility argument makes it seem pretty likely that this market won't resolve in the next 25 years, and so those are the timescales we have to think about. On timescales that large the big concerns are black swans, and since the Dollar has been around longer than Bitcoin, it seems likelier that Bitcoin would be affected in a severely negative way. For Bitcoin, this could be major governments banning it, or the mining gaps problem or quantum computing or something I haven't thought of. I don't know if any of those things are likelier than not to drive the price below 100, but perhaps there's still a 30% chance they will.

@JonathanRay Anyway, here's a market to try to zero in on this. It resolves YES if this market resolves YES within 25 years.

The entire world's GPD is about 100 Trillion USD. The market cap of bitcoin at a valuation of one million dollar would be between 19.37 and 21 Trillion USD. That's pretty much the entire M2 money supply in dollar https://money.howstuffworks.com/how-much-money-is-in-the-world.html.

Bitcoin will never reach a million USD. That's almost certain. The only option for a bitcoin to equal a million dollars is if the dollar crashes completely. But in that scenario we'd have to worry about much more pressing matters than this market 😃

1 million requires only a 33x increase (with the inevitable fiat inflation providing a tailwind)

meanwhile 100 requires a 300x decrease (with the inevitable fiat inflation providing a headwind)

Correct odds for this market are >90% imo

@JonathanRay nice tailwind 💨 for BTC in 2022 during highest fiat inflation in 40y

@deagol lg(30)/lg(1.02) = 171 years until 2% inflation drives USD down to 10^-6 btc with no change in the absolute value of bitcoin

@JonathanRay short term prices are driven by flows, and rising interest rates caused a lot of flow into treasuries and away from riskier assets (the opposite of what happened in 2020-2021)

@JonathanRay so no change in absolute value over 171y but it’s a risky asset at the whims of flows and interest rates? 🙄

@deagol I'm not claiming the absolute value of bitcoin won't vary. I'm saying conditional on staying the same, it reaches 1 million usd in about 171 years automatically. Less than that if the fed sucks at their job like it has recently.

@JonathanRay please educate me on what’s the absolute value of bitcoin, other than finding another fool to sell it to?

@JonathanRay since your math says BTC=30k right now, I’m sure we can arrange for you to buy it from me at that price, right now? ;)

@deagol See here for a detailed model. None of the currencies commonly used have any significant value beyond their use as currencies (whether it's dollars, gold, or bitcoin) but you can predict long term average price movement from macro factors.

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal

@JonathanRay model is flawed, people do get paid interest (usually >inflation) for holding fiat cash, but not gold or bitcoin, instead the later have costs and other risks (storage, security, volatility). None of that in model.

Also, huge variable in your model is BTC market cap, i.e. price (as proxy for adoption), so it’s circular/self-referential and will give nonsense output.

@deagol You totally can get paid interest on crypto, if you're willing to take some counterparty risk, same situation as any big corporation over the FDIC limit that wants to earn interest on their USD. People pay money to borrow things.

Managing fiat is neither free nor easy. You're probably paying 100bps to a financial advisor, or if a large public company probably spending 25% of your total man hours just on compliance bullshit.

@JonathanRay Disagree but won’t argue more, so I guess that’s what markets are for. I think this should be ~61-62% you think 90%. I can only scratch at the 69 wall distorting the price here, so only bought the amount I think would send the price around there if the wall wasn’t there. I wonder why The Wall isn’t 90% if you’re so sure?

BTW I’ll admit was wrong and buy it to 90% when BTC ~400k USD. I guess that’s just a few years based on your model?

@deagol well my 10% expected annual return until 2100 model implies the ETA of 400k USD bitcoin is log(400/27)/log(1.1) = 28 years. But it could be as soon as 2025 if adoption is front-loaded instead of log-linear