@Rwin I think the market is too high, but the large limit order make it a better investment.
We can just wait that bitcoin crash another time and make +222% of profit, and get back the loan while it doesn’t happen.

@dionisos Sure but this would lock up the investment for three months. I have cashed out for now. Maybe one of my limit orders will be filled though. But it will probably take a very long time until bitcoin drops to 100$ so without the option to cash out early this is kind of a boring market.

@Rwin If you know where to invest, yes. I mostly don't know where to spend my mana, so the limit order help.

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-bitcoin-ever-go-below-10000-ag

This one could be better for investing. Way to low and it could happen anytime.

@dionisos @Rwin If you are interested in a more direct analogue, here is my market

@BoltonBailey lg(27000/100)=8 and lg(1M/27000)=5.2 so if you model it as a fair coin flip doubling or halving every year, getting to the lower bound in 25 years would have a probability of 5% and getting to the upper bound in 25 years would have a probability of 20%

But I don't think the volatility is a random walk. It's mean-reverting around a mean that is based on macroeconomic fundamentals, and this mean should grow at least as fast as nominal world gdp, faster if bitcoin gains market share.

@JonathanRay Yes, I agree that it's probably not a random walk, and my above analysis is not actually one you would want to use to assess the probability if it were guaranteed that the US government and bitcoin blockchain were guaranteed to keep chugging along into infinity, so it's a bit misleading.

A better argument for NO is more like this: The volatility argument makes it seem pretty likely that this market won't resolve in the next 25 years, and so those are the timescales we have to think about. On timescales that large the big concerns are black swans, and since the Dollar has been around longer than Bitcoin, it seems likelier that Bitcoin would be affected in a severely negative way. For Bitcoin, this could be major governments banning it, or the mining gaps problem or quantum computing or something I haven't thought of. I don't know if any of those things are likelier than not to drive the price below 100, but perhaps there's still a 30% chance they will.

@JonathanRay Anyway, here's a market to try to zero in on this. It resolves YES if this market resolves YES within 25 years.

@JonathanRay nice tailwind 💨🫢 for BTC in 2022 during highest fiat inflation in 40y

@deagol lg(30)/lg(1.02) = 171 years until 2% inflation drives USD down to 10^-6 btc with no change in the absolute value of bitcoin

@JonathanRay short term prices are driven by flows, and rising interest rates caused a lot of flow into treasuries and away from riskier assets (the opposite of what happened in 2020-2021)

@JonathanRay so no change in absolute value over 171y but it’s a risky asset at the whims of flows and interest rates? 🙄

@deagol I'm not claiming the absolute value of bitcoin won't vary. I'm saying conditional on staying the same, it reaches 1 million usd in about 171 years automatically. Less than that if the fed sucks at their job like it has recently.

@JonathanRay please educate me on what’s the absolute value of bitcoin, other than finding another fool to sell it to?

@JonathanRay since your math says BTC=30k right now, I’m sure we can arrange for you to buy it from me at that price, right now? ;)

@deagol the second sig fig is superfluous for this market

@deagol See here for a detailed model. None of the currencies commonly used have any significant value beyond their use as currencies (whether it's dollars, gold, or bitcoin) but you can predict long term average price movement from macro factors.

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal

@JonathanRay model is flawed, people do get paid interest (usually >inflation) for holding fiat cash, but not gold or bitcoin, instead the later have costs and other risks (storage, security, volatility). None of that in model.

Also, huge variable in your model is BTC market cap, i.e. price (as proxy for adoption), so it’s circular/self-referential and will give nonsense output.

@deagol You totally can get paid interest on crypto, if you're willing to take some counterparty risk, same situation as any big corporation over the FDIC limit that wants to earn interest on their USD. People pay money to borrow things.

Managing fiat is neither free nor easy. You're probably paying 100bps to a financial advisor, or if a large public company probably spending 25% of your total man hours just on compliance bullshit.

@JonathanRay Disagree but won’t argue more, so I guess that’s what markets are for. I think this should be ~61-62% you think 90%. I can only scratch at the 69 wall distorting the price here, so only bought the amount I think would send the price around there if the wall wasn’t there. I wonder why The Wall isn’t 90% if you’re so sure?

BTW I’ll admit was wrong and buy it to 90% when BTC ~400k USD. I guess that’s just a few years based on your model?

@deagol well my 10% expected annual return until 2100 model implies the ETA of 400k USD bitcoin is log(400/27)/log(1.1) = 28 years. But it could be as soon as 2025 if adoption is front-loaded instead of log-linear

@JonathanRay Wait, where does the 10% come from?

@BoltonBailey https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal