Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025?
➕
Plus
124
Ṁ140k
Apr 6
59%
chance

Resolves YES iff the volume-weighted-average-price of bitcoin on April 5 2025 (UTC) is above $100k.

Apr 18, 5:03pm: Will bitcoin be over 100k on April 5, 2025? → Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025?

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sold Ṁ0 NO

@JonathanRay

volume-weighted-average-price of bitcoin

can you please clarify how can we determine it, or do you have a source? volume on which exchange? thanks.

@deagol https://pro.kraken.com/app/trade/btc-usd

select daily bars. Select "average price" from the indicators. Hover over a daily bar to get the average price for that day.

boughtṀ50YES

@TP8ac2 Apologies if I'm assuming wrongly, but this is about the price on, not by, April 5. Hope it helps.

@deagol Thank you, Daniel! I didn’t realize this was the case. Also, I have followed your analysis from deagol’s AAPL model since 2009 or 2010 and am a big fan!

@TP8ac2 Wow! Thanks for following for so long. And sorry I haven't updated recently. It's no longer as exciting as back then, still a great investment almost bond-like haha. Cheers!

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 34% order

10k yes limit at 34% expires in 2 days

sold Ṁ0 YES

Some of the trading here makes me think there's confusion about this market's timeframe. April 5, 2025 is more than a year from now.

predictedNO

An easier market to arb:

predictedNO

A market of mine, (not for April 5, but for Jan 1)

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