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@BoltonBailey ~93.5k at close resolves to 50k-100k, thanks.

A few crappy predictions from crappy models:

Exponential Smoothing - seems to overestimate:

Date,High

2024-12-30,101157.03036815317

2024-12-31,101000.72474631974

2025-01-01,101553.4599407662

Hand tuned ARIMA - looks better:

Date,High

2024-12-30,101144.81588967162

2024-12-31,101045.82123228093

2025-01-01,101352.2990586152

Auto ARIMA:

Date,High

2024-12-30,100388.61610260721

2024-12-31,100560.85955844683

2025-01-01,100733.10099329492

@BoltonBailey just to clarify the precise time the price will be registered, it's not at the close of the day at CoinMarketCap (midnight UTC) but at the close of this market 6h later?

@deagol the manifold market close time is what I had in mind.

@BoltonBailey oh sick, AI has automatically updated the criterion

Anyone interested in my experiment with this model? Nixtla | State of the art forecasting

I used it for this question.

Cumulative:

Market for one year later

Taking all the lower bounds, the current probabilities imply an expected value of at least $41,700

@BoltonBailey

10,000 x 0.15 + 20,000 x 0.51 + 50,000 x 0.18 + 100,000 x 0.10 + 200,000 x 0.02 + 500,000 x 0.014 = 41700

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.14, 0.56, 0.15, 0.12, 0.014, 0.006]

now equal to 37900

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.22, 0.48, 0.16, 0.09, 0.011, 0.005]

equal to 33500

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.05, 0.33, 0.38, 0.18, 0.02, 0.018]

equal to 57100

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.02, 0.17, 0.44, 0.23, 0.10, 0.04]

equal to 88600

Only ~three months between the date on these markets and:

I have been arbitraging this some.