Resolves to the value that CoinMarketCap shows at the close time.
Update 2024-27-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
The price of Bitcoin will be resolved based on the Manifold market close time, not CoinMarketCap's close of day (midnight UTC).
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ1,672 | |
2 | Ṁ1,348 | |
3 | Ṁ895 | |
4 | Ṁ393 | |
5 | Ṁ380 |
A few crappy predictions from crappy models:
Exponential Smoothing - seems to overestimate:
Date,High
2024-12-30,101157.03036815317
2024-12-31,101000.72474631974
2025-01-01,101553.4599407662
Hand tuned ARIMA - looks better:
Date,High
2024-12-30,101144.81588967162
2024-12-31,101045.82123228093
2025-01-01,101352.2990586152
Auto ARIMA:
Date,High
2024-12-30,100388.61610260721
2024-12-31,100560.85955844683
2025-01-01,100733.10099329492
@BoltonBailey just to clarify the precise time the price will be registered, it's not at the close of the day at CoinMarketCap (midnight UTC) but at the close of this market 6h later?
Anyone interested in my experiment with this model? Nixtla | State of the art forecasting
I used it for this question.
10,000 x 0.15 + 20,000 x 0.51 + 50,000 x 0.18 + 100,000 x 0.10 + 200,000 x 0.02 + 500,000 x 0.014 = 41700
[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.14, 0.56, 0.15, 0.12, 0.014, 0.006]
now equal to 37900