
Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?
6
Ṁ180Ṁ1582069
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
57%
Fully autonomous car
20%
Fully autonomous soldier
12%
Fully autonomous surgeon
11%
Fully autonomous airliner
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
By 2050, will autonomous robots completely replace human soldiers in frontline combat roles?⚔️🤖⚔️
10% chance
First jobs to be replaced by AI?
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
45% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
85% chance
AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?
33% chance
Will AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?
6% chance
The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026
Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
30% chance
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2100?
59% chance
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?
73% chance