Will I have a non-Paxlovid Covid rebound?
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100Ṁ702resolved Oct 3
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I have Covid but I am not taking Paxlovid.
This market resolves YES if and only if in the next 30 days I get two consecutive negative lateral flow tests suggesting that the virus is cleared followed by two positive lateral flow tests suggesting that it has rebounded.
I will take at least one lateral flow test per day.
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FYI I collected some studies and analysis here: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-jill-biden-be-reported-to-have#TH7qEoHsbWQzmkuycKbm. The study of non-Paxlovid patients showed 12% rebound rate in terms of viral load (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.01.22278278v1.full-text).