Jill Biden has tested positive for Covid-19 and is being treated with Paxlovid.
This resolves to Yes if and only if Jill Biden is reported within the next 30 days to have tested negative for Covid, then tests positive again within the window.
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3.00@fortenforge Yeah, certainly noteworthy, I calculated the 90% confidence interval for a binomial distribution with 3/3 positives is [52%, 100%] (calculator here: https://epitools.ausvet.com.au/ciproportion).
I think the Manifold markets are good in that they are pre-registered questions with people who are planning to test often after initial recovery. So I think it is a statistically valid sample, for a specific subpopulation of people who started Paxlovid early.
The three markets in question for reference:
@jack Additional pre-registration here: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-i-have-a-nonpaxlovid-covid-reb
My impression is that rebound is a lot more likely if you take Paxlovid early, which I expect to have happened here because they are presumably testing pretty regularly and didn't waste time on obtaining the drug. To the extent it's dependent on your testing rates and surrounding environment and Omicron vs Delta and lots of other variables, she shares most of these with Joe Biden, so his rebound should be a decent update.
The most informative studies I've found so far on Covid rebound suggest that Covid rebound in general is probably happening in about 5-25% of Covid cases, both with and without Paxlovid. The wide range could be due to factors like how hard and how often you look for rebound symptoms/tests, how you define rebound (what threshold do you use for how much viral load has to increase, for example), how early you start Paxlovid, etc - hard to tell.
Study on Omicron rebounds in patients without Paxlovid or other treatment. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.01.22278278v1.full-text (n=568 untreated patients, August 2022). 12% had viral rebound, 10% had symptom rebound after symptoms resolved, and 27% had symptom rebound after initial symptom improvement.
Study on Omicron rebounds after Paxlovid or Molnupiravir treatment. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.04.22278378v1.full (n=11,270 patients who were treated with Paxlovid, June 2022). It finds about 6% rebound rates after Paxlovid treatment (and about 8% after Molnupiravir). The rate of post-Paxlovid rebounds in symptoms and in positive tests were both about 6%.
> The 7-day and 30-day COVID-19 rebound rates after Paxlovid treatment were 3.53% and 5.40% for COVID-19 infection, 2.31% and 5.87% for COVID-19 symptoms, and 0.44% and 0.77% for hospitalizations.
Some previous discussion on these markets: https://manifold.markets/jack/if-i-take-paxlovid-will-i-have-a-co#M2m0yLlh95ofrFxh3Z9t
and https://manifold.markets/jack/will-biden-have-a-postpaxlovid-covi
Personally, I thought Paxlovid was well worth it for me even though I did have a rebound. It reduced my symptoms by like 80%-90% after one day. And with the rebound, my symptoms lasted about 2x longer - so overall it was a clear win in terms of symptoms for me.
The biggest downside was having to isolate longer, in my case isolating that extra week wasn't a big deal but a different week could have been a lot more annoying.
@JoyVoid Being sick for a longer time (even if you're less sick than before) and having to isolate for a longer time can be a big cost for many people.