Before 2023, will the Tories change the rules to allow another vote of no confidence?
7
Ṁ140Ṁ600resolved Mar 12
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At present, according to party rules, Conservative MPs will not be allowed to hold another confidence vote for a year.
However, there has been speculation the rules could be changed, in order to hold another vote sooner.
When asked about it, Sir Graham Brady MP - the chairman of a group called the 1922 Committee, which represents Tory backbenchers - said "technically, it's possible".
***Before 2023, will the rules be changed to allow another vote of no confidence in the party leader?***
General context:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_vote_of_confidence_in_the_parliamentary_leadership_of_Boris_Johnson
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45953182
Specifics about rule changes:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-another-confidence-vote-how-1922-committee-rules-second-ballot-1673104
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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My reasoning that NO is more likely than YES is threefold. First, the latest stuff I've read suggests that the rebels are first going to try and get a no confidence vote from constituency associations (the "grassroots") rather than try again with the parliamentary party. Second, with Theresa May, the threat of changing the rules was enough to force her out, and perhaps Johnson would feel the same, or at least the rule change would trigger movements against him that, in turn, could force him out (cabinet rebellion). Finally, it isn't yet clear whether discontent will run high enough within the party to force this kind of thing - Johnson won the no confidence vote.
But I'm not especially confident about any of these reasons, and could see a plausible story that runs: the constituency associations vote no confidence in Johnson, but he rejects this as non-binding. The rule changes are threatened, but he thinks he can win a second confidence vote, and has shown that he won't be shamed/threatened out of office, as May was. But discontent has risen significantly in the face of constituency assocations' vote and by-election defeats. So they do change the rules and have another no confidence vote in the parliamentary party.