Will there be a successful ceasefire in Yemen during the month of Ramadan?
8
1
Ṁ451Ṁ105
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
The UN has been trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Yemen to span the entire holy month of Ramadan.
On March 21, the Houthis praised the move, saying it was a positive step: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-21/yemen-houthis-say-u-n-calls-for-truce-in-ramadan-a-positive-step-spokesman
On March 29, the Saudi-led coalition announced that it will observe a unilateral cease-fire: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/gulf-states-plan-yemen-talks-without-houthi-rebels-present/2022/03/29/3bfa7fc0-af23-11ec-9dbd-0d4609d44c1c_story.html.
Examples of events that will cause me to resolve this market to NO:
* The Saudi-led coalition launches airstrikes in Yemen.
* The Houthis explode a drone in Saudi Arabia.
If it seems ambiguous I will either resolve as N/A or at a percentage that I think is reasonable, along the lines that Gabrielle describes in his answer to my question in https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a.
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I've made a similar market on metaculus, but for the entire two months, not just for Ramadan. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10568/yemen-ramadan-ceasefire-2022
I am considering updating my resolution criteria. What I am thinking of switching it to:
"This question will resolve positively if the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coaltion has stood for for the month of Ramandan, beginning on midnight of April 2, 2022 (GMT+3) and ending on midnight of May 2, 2022 (GMT+3). The ceasefire will be deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. This question will resolve negatively if the ceasefire breaks down before midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3)."
I am hoping that this will reduce the possibility that it's hard to fairly resolve this market. I want this market's resolution to match our high-level intuition of, "Was the ceasefire a success during Ramandan or not?"
Despite some finger pointing about violations (see two article below), I feel that if the leaders of the two sides, the UN, and reliable news sources all say the ceasefire is in effect, then it's still in effect and it's a success.
Examples of accusations of ceasefire violations:
* https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/un-urges-restraint-after-yemen-truce-violation-charges
* https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/yemen-rival-factions-trade-blame-over-260-ceasefire-breaches
Thoughts?
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