Resolves to the lab that first releases a model which METR evaluates as having a 50% time horizon of at least 40 hours. Time horizons 1.1 or any clear successor metric counts.

Resolves to the first model by release date, not evaluation date. After METR first reports a model has a 40 hour time horizon, this market will stay open until it is clear that no previously released model also has a 40 hour time horizon (in my personal judgement).

Important note: if multiple models released within a week (strictly <168 hours) of each other all have ≥40 hour time horizons, this market resolves equally among them.