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MANIFOLD
How much profit will my first manifold bot make in the first 30 days (Jan 18 -> Feb 17)?
7
Ṁ275Ṁ374
resolved Feb 22
100%84%
<0M (Loss)
7%
0-500M
3%
500-1000M
1.9%
1000-2000M
1.6%
2000-5000M
1.6%
5000M+
1.0%Other

This is my first bot trading on Manifold. It uses one initial strategy, but I plan to tune it over time during the month. I have looked at the default market-maker bot for inspiration, as well as some rival bots.

The name of the bot will be revealed afterwards

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@JohnKelly Some users are concerned that this market resolution is incorrect.

If your bot started on 500 mana and ended on 909, that kind of sounds like you're talking about its balance, not its profit. Manifold has a clearly defined "profit" statistic that is calculated for every account. Since you didn't describe in the question or description that you were using a special version of "profit" that is actually "balance", we might need to re-resolve this.

Can you clarify:

  1. What account is your bot?

  2. Did you intend to resolve this based on balance instead of profit?

  3. If so, why did you not mention it until after the market was closed?

  4. Are you willing to consider re-resolving this if necessary?

@Eliza Yes, sorry, iI came back briefly to try and re-resolve it but couldnt find the ability to. This should be re-resolved to <0M resolution and the faulty resolution was due to me not realising I'd received another 500M in subsidy at some point. Sorry for the confusion

@JohnKelly Thanks for the clarification. I've unresolved the market and you can do the honors of re-resolving it to the correct answer.

@JohnKelly pls resolve

@Lion I have a strong hunch that his trading bot is @Euclidean , maybe the mods can also resolve?

@koadma will be resolved today but i am busy :)

@JohnKelly huh, what did I miscalculate? Is @Euclidean not actually your first bot?

@koadma bot started on 500 mana ended on 909

@JohnKelly that's its balance, its profit is negative

@JohnKelly which one is your bot?

Prove me wrong.