The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth.
https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/
Will a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.
Update 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026. The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.
1,000@NicholasWeininger The question says "get on the ballot and pass", so if it passes but gets held up by a court injunction this resolves YES because the market is about whether it will pass. Yes this is technically at odds with the title but I hadn't considered that outcome when writing the title. The title was meant to be cheeky, always read resolution criteria etc.
This tax was dumb and avarice based, and passed, so I don't know why the wealth tax wouldn't also pass:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Mental_Health_Services_Act