Resolution criteria

The referendum question asks: "Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?" This market resolves YES if Alberta formally separates from Canada and becomes an independent nation-state. This market resolves NO if Alberta remains part of Canada.

Note: Canada's constitution does not allow unilateral separation. The Clarity Act stipulates that the national parliament's House of Commons determines if a referendum demonstrates "a clear expression of a will by a clear majority" of the provincial population. Even if a referendum passes, separation would require federal approval and constitutional amendment. This market resolves based on whether actual separation occurs, not merely a referendum result.

Background

Separation has gained considerable media attention following the 2025 federal election, and a referendum on Albertan independence is likely to take place in 2026. Elections Alberta has approved a citizen initiative petition aimed at putting a referendum question forward to Albertans about separating from Canada. The Alberta Prosperity Project has four months to collect nearly 178,000 signatures for its petition.

The main issues driving separatist sentiment have been the power disparity relative to Ottawa, a sense of distinctiveness with regard to Alberta's cultural and political identity, and Canadian fiscal policy, particularly as it pertains to Alberta's petroleum industry.

Considerations

Only one province, Quebec, has actually held referenda on separating from Canada, in 1980 and 1995, both of which showed a majority of Québécois preferred to stay with Canada. A pro-Canada petition gathered more than 438,000 Albertans' signatures, amounting to nearly one in seven of all eligible Alberta voters.