Will Hinkley Point C be completed for under £30bn?
Will Hinkley Point C be completed for under £30bn?
6
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In May 2022, the expected cost of Hinkley Point C was increased by £3bn to ~£26bn.
This market will resolve positively is Hinkley Point C is announced to have been commissioned (completed), with less than £30bn spent.
The market will resolve negatively if more than £30bn has credibly been spent, even if the project has not been completed.
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Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 am
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Looks like I made a mistake when creating the market - it has already closed. Will ask Manifold to extend to 2030.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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