Will a hurricane hit the US Gulf Coast by September 30, 2022?
13
100Ṁ2160
resolved Sep 28
Resolved
YES

This question resolves to YES if a storm makes landfall as a hurricane on the US Gulf Coast by September 30, 2022 end of day (UTC-5). This includes landfall from the US border near Brownsville TX to south Florida, approaching from the Gulf of Mexico. A storm track passing west or north of Key West FL and then making landfall on the west coast of Florida counts. A storm track passing across Florida from the east into the Gulf or tracking east of Key West does not count, unless it enters the Gulf and then makes landfall north of Fort Myers.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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There's a slight chance it misses Florida, but I think it's time to cut my losses on this one.

"Will a hurricane hit the US Gulf Coast by October 15, 2022?"

(see link from @martinwurer in previous comment)

https://manifold.markets/marthinwurer/will-a-hurricane-hit-the-us-gulf-co-558cee51701f

predictedNO

Are you going to make a market for the first half of October?

Climatology has it at about 30%, GEFS out to the 22nd has two storms strong enough.

I just want to make sure I am clear on that last sentence of the description. So if the eye of the storm passed over Florida and went back over the Gulf then gained strength and made landfall in Louisiana, for example, that would count, correct?

@BTE Yes

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