Will a hurricane hit the US Gulf Coast by September 15, 2022?
13
140
resolved Sep 16
Resolved
NO

This question resolves to YES if a storm makes landfall as a hurricane on the US Gulf Coast by September 15, 2022 end of day (UTC-5). This includes landfall from the US border near Brownsville TX to south Florida, approaching from the Gulf of Mexico. A storm track passing west or north of Key West FL and then making landfall on the west coast of Florida counts. A storm track passing across Florida from the east into the Gulf or tracking east of Key West does not count, unless it enters the Gulf and then makes landfall north of Fort Myers.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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bought Ṁ160 of NO

There's still only one low on the latest GEFS run.

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bought Ṁ250 of NO

GEFS has one low with intensity approaching 60knts in their 21 runs hit the coast. It's most likely not gonna happen.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Climatology has it somewhere around 20%, but I don't have any good precision there.