Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 5 years? | Manifold

Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 5 years?

9

16

Ṁ220

Ṁ100

2027

38%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2027

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicts NO

https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/ARKK/SPY

@JimKjelland I think this should be reopened with a close date equal to the end of the window in question.

predicts YES

@EvanDaniel The point for me was to predict 5 years into the future, not to track constantly updating odds as things evolve, if that makes sense.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Same reasoning as other bet...however this is the 5 year one, the other one is the 3-year one, so I'm going to put a bit more $M on that other 3-year bet.

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[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?

-4% 1d73% chance

Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 3 years?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 15% over 2024?

Will the S&P500 grow faster than inflation between 2023-2025?

Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2024?

Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?

Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 20% over 2024?

Will the next >=5% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?

Will the S&P500 outperform the total world stock market over the next 50 years?

Related questions

[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?

Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?

Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 3 years?

Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 15% over 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 20% over 2024?

Will the S&P500 grow faster than inflation between 2023-2025?

Will the next >=5% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?

Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2024?

Will the S&P500 outperform the total world stock market over the next 50 years?