Will The One Ring be worth a million dollars?
25
487
510
resolved Aug 3
Resolved
YES

The MTG set The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth will be released on June 23rd. There's a promotional version of The One Ring card in a random collector booster pack, of which only a single one exists.

https://mtg.fandom.com/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings:_Tales_of_Middle-earth#Rings

The highest price for a previous Magic card was $511,100. Some people think the One Ring will be the first Magic card worth a million.

https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/jimdavis-03172023-the-one-ring-is-going-to-be-the-first-million-dollar-magic-card-and-thats-okay

Will it be reported to have sold or changed ownership in a way that values the card at a million dollars or more by the end of August?

Resolves N/A if there's no report that it has been found by then.

2 million dollar version

I will not trade on this market.

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predicted YES

Well it looks like they found it... I assume it is authentic if an authentication service was willing to rate it, however at 2 million dollars one might pour a lot of resources into forging a new ring and still make a profit.

@ShitakiIntaki Wizards confirmed it's the real one.

predicted NO

@ShitakiIntaki now they have about 2 months to sell it. I assume the smart move is to sell while it's hot.

@Odoacre For example, if Wizards announces next week that they have four similar promotions planned for the next 4 quarters, that might decrease the demand

predicted NO

@JimHays yes exactly. If it was me I'd sell asap

Shouldn't this already resolve YES given the public offers?

predicted NO

@IsaacKing

They might not sell it.

They might not find it.

They might donate it to a museum for free.

They might burn it and post the video on tick-tock.

@Odoacre None of those change the fact that someone has offered a million dollars for it.

A $1 bill doesn't stop being worth $1 just because I choose not to spend it.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing

Will it be reported to have sold or changed ownership in a way that values the card at a million dollars or more by the end of August?

Ah, my bad. Misleading title then.

@IsaacKing I’m requiring a transaction or exchange to act as a litmus test for the publicly stated offer being real. Someone could make a big offer for free publicity, then back out without purchasing, in which case it wasn’t actually worth what they claimed.

But you’re right that I could probably have written a more precise title

@JimHays Yeah that seems reasonable. (I can vouch for the first $1 million offer being legit BTW.)

@epicandSTEVIE Right on the money. We’ll see if it happens!

It's pricelessssssss, my precioussssss.

Resolves N/A if there's no report that it has been found by [the end of August 2023], however if the ring is found by, say, Sméagol and Sméagol is unwilling to part with it, then this market Resolves NO?

@ShitakiIntaki Correct. Even if someone says they would be willing to give Sméagol 100 million for it, or if Sméagol gets an independent evaluator to say the card is with 5 million, I’m only counting a valuation based on changing hands