Will there be a crime associated with the One Ring within 5 years of it being opened?
Will there be a crime associated with the One Ring within 5 years of it being opened?
15
1kṀ7972028
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be a crime associated with the one of one copy of the One Ring?
Crimes include murder, theft, etc.
The ring has been found: https://www.psacard.com/cert/77032826
Release announcement: https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/announcements/a-first-look-at-the-lord-of-the-rings-tales-of-middle-earth
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
I find myself surprisingly desperate to bet YES simply because that would be a more interesting world to inhabit, but reality is usually disappointing.
The ring has been found. I added proof in the description. I updated the close date for this market.
What about "this is technically a crime, but the justice department has shown no interest because they have bigger things to worry about"
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.