Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order or Presidential Proclamation, or a federal law is enacted, that officially directs U.S. federal agencies or the U.S. Board on Geographic Names (BGN) to change the name of Lake Ontario (or the U.S. territorial portion of it) to "Lake America" or another alternative name of American branding.

To resolve YES, international recognition or bilateral agreement from Canada is not required. A unilateral U.S. federal directive affecting official maps, databases, or executive agency nomenclature (modeled after the mechanism of Executive Order 14172) is sufficient.

If no such executive order, presidential proclamation, or federal law is signed or enacted by the deadline, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

On August 25, 2026, amid escalating trade tensions and tariff disputes with Canada, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States is giving "serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America".

This threat mirrors unilateral actions taken early in his second term. On January 20, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14172 ("Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness"), which directed federal agencies to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America" on official U.S. maps and databases, and to revert the federal name of Denali to "Mount McKinley". While geographical experts and Canadian officials note that a bi-national body of water cannot be unilaterally renamed internationally, a unilateral domestic renaming via federal executive action would fulfill the criteria for this market.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.