Will there be a claim that Kamala Harris has had a lesbian relations published in a reputable newspaper?
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resolved Nov 1
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Will there be a report claiming that Kamala Harris has had a lesbian relationship published in any of the big newspapers of record in the US - WSJ, NYT, WashPo? Unsubstantiated claims from anonymous sources will not count. Some judgement here, so I won’t bet.

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@JimAusman Does this resolve NO if there is nothing published by market close?

I’m confused as to why there’s even speculation on this. Is it widely believed that she has?

She’s a Gen Xer who went to college, so it would be surprising to me if she didn’t.

bought Ṁ500 NO

Even if true, it isn't newsworthy, so I sincerely doubt it would be reported.

I think it'd be mildly newsworthy, but it would've come out earlier if it was going to

All of this assumes a lesbian relationship is more of a liability than an asset to her.

There’s a reason why the ‘L’ comes first in LGBTQIA+ etc—people like lesbianism. You remember that scene in GOT where Ramsay Bolton has to get Theon Greyjoy’s package ready? What does he do? Anyway…

Let’s say she wants some wants to grab some headlines for a news cycle, signal some LGBTQIA+ cred, a woman she dated in college doesn’t mind being outed, and there’s photos of them being a cute couple? 🥥+🍑=👀

I agree that to her base it is an asset and would increase turnout. I am not sure about independents, but I would expect it wouldn't sway them either way.

Given this I would expect this to have come out already by now, or even during 2020, if it was real.

It could plausibly get used to generate positive coverage for a cycle, but I don’t think it would otherwise impact turnout, even among her base. I don’t know anyone who’d be like “Damn, I wasn’t going to vote before, but I’m sure as hell voting now that I know Kamala Harris had a lesbian relationship 40 years ago”

And I say this as a gay woman who’s part of her base. Like, I’m voting for her, but I could care less about her sexuality. I just want a president that isn’t actively hostile to queer people.

US elections are all about turnout which means they are all about the voter who is marginal as to whether they will turn out or not. More specifically, marginal voters in marginal (swing) states. Nobody else's votes matter. The majority of people are not marginal voters. Listening to those who aren't marginal voters (i.e. listening to the majority) isn't very informative as to how the election will play out.

I'm surprised you say that though. Trump has done a lot for the gay community too, even though it doesn't get much media coverage.

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