I can resolve this market either way. However, if I resolve YES, I must pay 5,000 mana to a randomly chosen trader.
➕
Plus
59
Ṁ3895
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES

This is a social experiment. I will not bet on this market. I will maintain a balance of at least 5,000 mana until this market resolves.

Details on how the random trader is chosen:

When the market closes, say there are N accounts with YES positions and M accounts with NO positions. Then, the accounts with YES positions are assigned 1 through N, in order from largest to smallest position, and the accounts with NO positions are assigned N+1 through N+M, again from largest to smallest position. A random integer from 1 to N+M will be generated with @FairlyRandom to select the account.

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Out of curiosity, what convinced you to resolve yes?

🤖

@JiaheLiu your random number is: 48

Salt: b9auvi214fi, round: 4595301 (signature b58bf28c2af250b0b175791164a9037389f8d8eb4918bec5e60c26a189ff7ea2d69a95d48f45b88f03137cd328d363c40584975229a00eaf0acc484bcd222b0d8348944408a71a9f8e2f70ff4930b8439900d5d0115da9788e553c9cfbbbe48c)

48 corresponds to @BrunoParga , who I have sent the mana to.

Market resolves YES

@JiaheLiu big W for irrationality

@JiaheLiu waaaat

And people try to say prediction markets are any different from lotteries...

@JiaheLiu thank you!

🤖

@JiaheLiu you asked for a random integer between 1 and 59, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4595299 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4595301, salt: b9auvi214fi.

@FairlyRandom 59

bought Ṁ1 NO

Why would you resolve Yes?

OP isn't betting in the market, but OP could still be bribed or otherwise encouraged by YES holders. If the market gains enough liquidity, a YES holder could stand to gain >M5000.

bought Ṁ1 NO

Any details on how you'll choose the resolution?

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