Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky, writing alone?
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https://manifold.markets/Arete/is-syzygy-on-the-glowfic-constellat is a market on the same proposition, but resolves YES if it is a collaboration under a shared pseudonym.

Aevylmar

If Syzygy is an account used by Eliezer and another author cowriting the thread disguised as a single author, which way does this thread resolve?

Arete

@Aevylmar I would resolve it YES if Eliezer is cowriting even if he's not writing the whole thing, NO if it's entirely written by another author who is asking him a large number of questions behind the scene.

This market will resolve YES only if Syzygy is Eliezer writing without (human) assistance under a different pseudonym from his primary account. If the other market resolves NO, this will also resolve NO.

https://glowfic.com/users/884

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bought Ṁ5 of NO

Updating based off of Eliezer's position on "first move advantage" in the glowfic discord.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

I am betting a symbolic 1 mana on YES so that I will technically be on the 'I think it is more than 20% likely' side of this argument, even though I invested all the mana I want to over on the other market.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Aevylmar I am betting 10 mana on NO for the same reason:

[9:46 am] Sora: Sora goes hunting for his sister and Stephanie. This floor of the castle is dominated by the baths and doesn't have many other rooms; he should be able to find them in short order.

[9:48 am] Elkia City: Yeah, if he's prepared to walk into what is presumably a women's locker room while they're using it.

[9:51 am] Sora: It does not even occur to Sora that he might not want to do this.

[10:00 AM] Shiro: Shiro is situated in front of a full-length mirror...

If this was a single author, I'd expect that these four posts would be more closely spaced in time than this (there are more closely spaced posts before and after this in the thread, so it's not "glowfic posts take a while to create").