https://manifold.markets/Arete/is-syzygy-on-the-glowfic-constellat is a market on the same proposition, but resolves YES if it is a collaboration under a shared pseudonym.
If Syzygy is an account used by Eliezer and another author cowriting the thread disguised as a single author, which way does this thread resolve?
@Aevylmar I would resolve it YES if Eliezer is cowriting even if he's not writing the whole thing, NO if it's entirely written by another author who is asking him a large number of questions behind the scene.
This market will resolve YES only if Syzygy is Eliezer writing without (human) assistance under a different pseudonym from his primary account. If the other market resolves NO, this will also resolve NO.
1,000
3.00An interesting combination of developments:
@Aevylmar I am betting 10 mana on NO for the same reason:
[9:46 am] Sora: Sora goes hunting for his sister and Stephanie. This floor of the castle is dominated by the baths and doesn't have many other rooms; he should be able to find them in short order.
[9:48 am] Elkia City: Yeah, if he's prepared to walk into what is presumably a women's locker room while they're using it.
[9:51 am] Sora: It does not even occur to Sora that he might not want to do this.
[10:00 AM] Shiro: Shiro is situated in front of a full-length mirror...
If this was a single author, I'd expect that these four posts would be more closely spaced in time than this (there are more closely spaced posts before and after this in the thread, so it's not "glowfic posts take a while to create").