Current calls are for Xi Jinping to resign - but how will the CCP will respond?
Using a simple short term question for my first market here. I'll resolve either once the CCP centrally declares a policy for dealing with riots that involves threats of military force, or this isn't done by 01/01/2023
Nov 27, 11:26pm: Will the CCP respond to Zero Covid riots with a military crackdown before the start of 2023? → Will the CCP respond to Zero Covid protests with riot control methods (batons, gas etc), before the start of 2023?
Close date updated to 2022-12-07 10:05 am
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I guess I can understand what you might be thinking: can't have Zero Covid protests without Zero Covid. But... that wasn't written in your resolution criteria, and it would have been sporting to have the market will stay open until the end of the year, just in case China sees massive Covid and decides to reimplement ZC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwHq5DY_hJ8
They used gas wth
Right the central committee said nothing, but this was authorized and acquiesced. The officials that ordered suppression of the protests were not punished or reprimanded, or even mentioned for what had happened.
Those protestors have now been imprisoned and face trial and sentences of years in jail. None of anything that happened is not under the CCP's control.
What a biased market and misleading title.
@JethroReeve Wouldn't it be more prudent to wait until the start of 2023 to resolve, since that is in the text of the question?
@JethroReeve That doesn't make sense. Even if China ends the most severe zero-covid restrictions, they can still respond to protests with riot control methods. The two are not mutually exclusive in any way.
@JordiCervera The description speaks of the central government / committee. Officially, the protests have not even been mentioned. That is the nature of the CCP.
I expect there will be significant threat of force, but such a policy will not be unambiguously declared centrally. Most of my uncertainty lies around how obviously such a policy will need to "declared"; it seems pretty likely there will be ominous hinting and at least some actual use of forceful crowd dispersal techniques and less likely there will be a central "go home or we'll shoot you" announcement. Buying no but with a wide uncertainty around how the market will actually be resolved.
@BTE Not sure I agree. IIRC the stated purpose of at least some vaccine mandates for college students (which were widespread) was to "protect the community". If preventing (or decreasing) transmission wasn't the purpose, what was?
@Boklam Also not sure this has any relevance to a question about covid, protests and policing in China.