Where will Tiger Woods sign for his next clothing brand sponsor?
4
230Ṁ298Feb 8
40%
Under Armour
1.0%
Adidas
1.0%
Malbon
1.0%
FootJoy
2%
GFore/Peter Millar
55%
Other
Following Tiger Wood’s departure from Nike, a new brand sponsor is expected to be announced at the Genesis Invitational, taking place Feb 15-18 in Los Angeles.
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Normally the closing date should be after the event happens. Bets made later on have no influence on bets made earlier, so closing a week ahead of the expected resolution only ties up mana for no reason.
If you truly want to close the market a week before the event, that's fine, but I think most participants generally like to be able to trade. There is a real chance that the news breaks during the time this market would be closed, a few days before the event.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.